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Forums - Sales - August 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

trunkswd said:
Kyuu said:

Safe to say that over 7k if not 7.5k of these GTA boosted sales are from PS5. We can actually extrapolate the previous week from that,

If 17% represents a 7k increase, the previous week saw PS5 selling 41k~ (vs 48k~)
If 9% represents a 1k increase, the previous week saw Xbox selling 11k~ (vs 12k~)

I'm gonna guess:

Switch 2: 270k
PS5: 190k
Xbox: 35k

I ran the math given the % changes Mat gave and Xbox performed much better than that. Your PS5 is close. Main thing to keep note is combined they are up 14% week-on-week (13.5%-14.4% with Mat rounding). PS5 is up 17% and XS is up 9% WoW.

Week ending August 22:

  • PS5 is 36.7K-38K 
  • XS is 16.8K-18.4K

Week ending August 29:

  • PS5 is 42.9K-44.5K
  • XS is 18.3K-20.1K

This gives combined PS5 and XS sales up 14.4% WoW. XS sales being lower than what I have brings the combined sales to 14.5% or higher as PS5 is up more than the average between the 2.

From what I've seen XS was supply constrained in July and in the first 2 weeks of August. Before there was new stock that caused a bump the last 2 weeks of the month. So XS sales the first 2 weeks are likely 8K-15K combined. But we shall see what the Circana report has as they get hardware data from like 99% of the market.

For those wondering with the limited data we do have and what Mat gave us puts rough estimates around:

  • PS5 - 140K-170K
  • XS - 43K-55K

This is just very rough preliminary estimates. Which is why we always wait for the Circana report so the initial estimates we do post for the Americas are more accurate. We don't have enough data for NS2 or NS1 to give any rough estimates.

Yeah this seems much more accurate, as my calc would require a 15.3%~ WoW increase for both consoles combined. I was distracted and didn't account for the combined increase of 14%~

I didn't know Xbox had supply constraints throughout July. I guess this explains why July numbers were shockingly low and why August numbers look solid in comparison bearing in mind the huge price increase.



Around the Network

Less than 3 days until the report drops.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

NS2 - 264K
PS5 - 186K
XS - 42K
NS - 25K

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 05 October 2026

VGCHARTZ will have to be quicker this time with the analyses because in 2 weeks the September report will be out. Anyway, I’m expecting an increase for the PS5 and Xbox due to GTA 6.



NS2 - 250K
PS5 - 190K
XS - 43K
NS - 23K



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https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3mxejc43tvk2n



jvmkdg said:

https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3mxejc43tvk2n

Hardware - PlayStation hardware unit sales fell 11% during August when compared to a year ago (to the lowest August total since 2013), while Xbox hardware unit sales declined by 31% (lowest August since 2020). Nintendo hardware unit sales dipped by 15% vs YA.

Assuming my nubers are right here.

  1. NS2 - 262K
  2. PS5 - 152K
  3. NS - unknowable
  4. XS - 34K

@trunkswd your range was right on for PS5 but massively overblown for Xbox. All and all not a bad prediction espicially for PS5

Last edited by CosmicSex - on 08 October 2026

OP updated with the breakdown article.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

CosmicSex said:
jvmkdg said:

https://bsky.app/profile/matpiscatella.bsky.social/post/3mxejc43tvk2n

Hardware - PlayStation hardware unit sales fell 11% during August when compared to a year ago (to the lowest August total since 2013), while Xbox hardware unit sales declined by 31% (lowest August since 2020). Nintendo hardware unit sales dipped by 15% vs YA.

  1. NS2 - 262K
  2. PS5 - 152K
  3. NS - unknowable
  4. XS - 34K

That 15% drop is for Switch 2 and Switch 1 combined and not just Switch 2. Also looks like we are too low for August 2025 given Mat says 559,000 consoles were sold for the month.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
CosmicSex said:

Hardware - PlayStation hardware unit sales fell 11% during August when compared to a year ago (to the lowest August total since 2013), while Xbox hardware unit sales declined by 31% (lowest August since 2020). Nintendo hardware unit sales dipped by 15% vs YA.

  1. NS2 - 262K
  2. PS5 - 152K
  3. NS - unknowable
  4. XS - 34K

That 15% drop is for Switch 2 and Switch 1 combined and not just Switch 2. Also looks like we are too low for August 2025 given Mat says 559,000 consoles were sold for the month.

Okay got it... how do you suppose we extract the Switch 2 sales from this? 

Last edited by CosmicSex - on 08 October 2026