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Forums - Sales - August 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

I see there was little data given in August 2025, which is why that is so far off.

I am still tweaking the numbers but so far I got:

Should be noted the percent drops are rounded to the nearest percent. So for example a 15% drop could be anywhere from 14.5% to 15.4%.

Edit: Updated the numbers with the slightly different percentages that are still within rounding:

US August 2025:

  • NS2 309K
  • PS5 190K
  • XS 86K
  • NS1 76K
  • Total ~661K
  • (NS2+NS1 = 385K)

US August 2026:

  • NS2+NS1 329K (-14.5%) (Mat -15%)
  • PS5 169.9K (-10.6%) (Mat -11%)
  • XS 59.7K (-30.6%) (Mat -31%)
  • Total 558.6K (Should be 559K)

Now the breakdown for NS2 and NS1 for August 2026. We are likely talking ~300K for NS2 and ~29K for NS1. NS1 was at 28.5K for July 2026, and August 2025 was barely above July 2025. So having August 2026 a tad above July 2026 makes some sense. 

@CosmicSex 

Last edited by trunkswd - 2 days ago

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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trunkswd said:

I see there was little data given in August 2025, which is why that is so far off.

I am still tweaking the numbers but so far I got:

Should be noted the percent drops are rounded to the nearest percent. So for example a 15% drop could be anywhere from 14.5% to 15.4%.

Edit: Updated the numbers with the slightly different percentages that are still within rounding:

US August 2025:

  • NS2 309K
  • PS5 190K
  • XS 86K
  • NS1 76K
  • Total ~661K
  • (NS2+NS1 = 385K)

US August 2026:

  • NS2+NS1 329K (-14.5%) (Mat -15%)
  • PS5 169.9K (-10.6%) (Mat -11%)
  • XS 59.7K (-30.6%) (Mat -31%)
  • Total 558.6K (Should be 559K)

Now the breakdown for NS2 and NS1 for August 2026. We are likely talking ~300K for NS2 and ~29K for NS1. NS1 was at 28.5K for July 2026, and August 2025 was barely above July 2025. So having August 2026 a tad above July 2026 makes some sense. 

@CosmicSex 

Quick question.  In the Op you have Aug 2025 as

VGChartz US estimates for August 2025:

  1. NS2 - 309K
  2. PS5 - 171K
  3. NS - 75K
  4. XS - 49K

But in the post above you have Xbox at 86k for Aug 2025

I think this is were my confusion before about you 53k prediction came from.  Was this a typo?

If it was this it all makes sense to me now and I appologize for my confusion.



CosmicSex said:
trunkswd said:

I see there was little data given in August 2025, which is why that is so far off.

I am still tweaking the numbers but so far I got:

Should be noted the percent drops are rounded to the nearest percent. So for example a 15% drop could be anywhere from 14.5% to 15.4%.

Edit: Updated the numbers with the slightly different percentages that are still within rounding:

US August 2025:

  • NS2 309K
  • PS5 190K
  • XS 86K
  • NS1 76K
  • Total ~661K
  • (NS2+NS1 = 385K)

US August 2026:

  • NS2+NS1 329K (-14.5%) (Mat -15%)
  • PS5 169.9K (-10.6%) (Mat -11%)
  • XS 59.7K (-30.6%) (Mat -31%)
  • Total 558.6K (Should be 559K)

Now the breakdown for NS2 and NS1 for August 2026. We are likely talking ~300K for NS2 and ~29K for NS1. NS1 was at 28.5K for July 2026, and August 2025 was barely above July 2025. So having August 2026 a tad above July 2026 makes some sense. 

@CosmicSex 

Quick question.  In the Op you have Aug 2025 as

VGChartz US estimates for August 2025:

  1. NS2 - 309K
  2. PS5 - 171K
  3. NS - 75K
  4. XS - 49K

But in the post above you have Xbox at 86k for Aug 2025

I think this is were my confusion before about you 53k prediction came from.  Was this a typo?

If it was this it all makes sense to me now and I appologize for my confusion.

The OP for August 2025 was before adjustments I made today. Let me go update that. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

jvmkdg said:

VGCHARTZ will have to be quicker this time with the analyses because in 2 weeks the September report will be out. Anyway, I’m expecting an increase for the PS5 and Xbox due to GTA 6.

WW data was all posted within a 24 period of NPD data, there ya go. Now you can wait another 13 days for September..