August 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[trunkswd]

CosmicSex said:

trunkswd said:

I see there was little data given in August 2025, which is why that is so far off.

I am still tweaking the numbers but so far I got:

Should be noted the percent drops are rounded to the nearest percent. So for example a 15% drop could be anywhere from 14.5% to 15.4%.

Edit: Updated the numbers with the slightly different percentages that are still within rounding:

US August 2025:

• NS2 309K
• PS5 190K
• XS 86K
• NS1 76K
• Total ~661K
• (NS2+NS1 = 385K)

US August 2026:

• NS2+NS1 329K (-14.5%) (Mat -15%)
• PS5 169.9K (-10.6%) (Mat -11%)
• XS 59.7K (-30.6%) (Mat -31%)
• Total 558.6K (Should be 559K)

Now the breakdown for NS2 and NS1 for August 2026. We are likely talking ~300K for NS2 and ~29K for NS1. NS1 was at 28.5K for July 2026, and August 2025 was barely above July 2025. So having August 2026 a tad above July 2026 makes some sense. 

@CosmicSex 

Quick question.  In the Op you have Aug 2025 as

VGChartz US estimates for August 2025:

1. NS2 - 309K
2. PS5 - 171K
3. NS - 75K
4. XS - 49K

But in the post above you have Xbox at 86k for Aug 2025

I think this is were my confusion before about you 53k prediction came from.  Was this a typo?

If it was this it all makes sense to me now and I appologize for my confusion.

The OP for August 2025 was before adjustments I made today. Let me go update that.