August 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

[trunkswd]

Kyuu said:

Safe to say that over 7k if not 7.5k of these GTA boosted sales are from PS5. We can actually extrapolate the previous week from that,

If 17% represents a 7k increase, the previous week saw PS5 selling 41k~ (vs 48k~)
If 9% represents a 1k increase, the previous week saw Xbox selling 11k~ (vs 12k~)

I'm gonna guess:

Switch 2: 270k
PS5: 190k
Xbox: 35k

I ran the math given the % changes Mat gave and Xbox performed much better than that. Your PS5 is close. Main thing to keep note is combined they are up 14% week-on-week (13.5%-14.4% with Mat rounding). PS5 is up 17% and XS is up 9% WoW.

Week ending August 22:

• PS5 is 36.7K-38K 
• XS is 16.8K-18.4K

Week ending August 29:

• PS5 is 42.9K-44.5K
• XS is 18.3K-20.1K

This gives combined PS5 and XS sales up 14.4% WoW. XS sales being lower than what I have brings the combined sales to 14.5% or higher as PS5 is up more than the average between the 2.

From what I've seen XS was supply constrained in July and in the first 2 weeks of August. Before there was new stock that caused a bump the last 2 weeks of the month. So XS sales the first 2 weeks are likely 8K-15K combined. But we shall see what the Circana report has as they get hardware data from like 99% of the market.

For those wondering with the limited data we do have and what Mat gave us puts rough estimates around:

• PS5 - 140K-170K
• XS - 43K-55K

This is just very rough preliminary estimates. Which is why we always wait for the Circana report so the initial estimates we do post for the Americas are more accurate. We don't have enough data for NS2 or NS1 to give any rough estimates.

Last edited by trunkswd - 18 hours ago