The big X factor here is if the Switch 2 gets a price increase or not after the fiscal year. People are going to buy PS5's for GTA VI no matter what it cost. But if you're looking for an uptick for Switch 2 in Europe and US because of Pokemon, a price increase might just dampen that hope. (It will in Europe that's for sure) Pokemon sells great don't get me wrong but GTA is an event like no other. Plus you got Wolverine on top of that and MS's own Fable as well which is not shipping day 1 on Switch 2.

Sony has also proven that it doesn't need Japan in order to compete in Asia overall. We will have to see how Phantom Blade Zero performs in China and Asia overall come September. If it performs anywhere close to Black Myth: Wukong then that's going to be a huge success to Sony, considering that game caused PS5's to sell out in China, brought in a ton of new users to PSN and even helped out in balancing the loss of that quarter due to Concord.

So all in all, Switch has a great chance at topping the year but it's not a done deal yet. If Switch 2 gets a price raise and GTA VI hits on time, there's a chance for a huge upset at the end of the year and no amount of crying about third party sales is going to change that. We will just have to wait and see.

RDR2 was just one year though and GTA 5's PC version was originally intended to coincide with the PS4 and Xbox One versions but ended up getting delayed for more development time. With how much PC gaming has grown since then they'll wanna get it out on the platform as soon as they can to get PC players buying microtransactions for GTA 6 online as soon as possible. As a result the PC version should come out next year unless they mismanage things but even then there's no way it'll take till late 2028. 

RDR2 had less development time overall. GTA 6 has more, this is also a factor. And yes the fact that GTA 5 needed more development time in order to reach the PC is the reason I say 2 years. You just got the answer in the your first sentence. And on top of that, GTA 6 is way more complex and it will need way more development time than 5 for both the game itself and the ports. GTA 6 PC release will come out more than 1 year after the console release.

The fact that PC gaming has had massive growth probably means they'll have began working on the PC version sooner this time though right? It just makes more financial sense to get that version out as soon as they can.

It's not impossible. But overall release only a year later is less likely than 2 years later given all the circumstances.

I very much doubt GTA VI will take 2 years to come to PC. Times have a changed a lot since the past, the PC is not some "bonus platform" anymore for developers/publishers, it's a bigger platform nowadays for many publishers than the Playstation is, so much so that even Sony bent the knee and ports their own PS5 games to PC now. 

Beyond the fact that PC these days can easily run anything a PS5 or XBSS/X can, there's no reason a port would take that long. You could likely get a port out the door within 6 months with no fuss. There's nothing special about the PS5/XBSS/X at this point hardware wise, they're basically just shitty PC architecture by today's standards on what's available on the PC side, a port would not be difficult. A very dated 2070 GPU is better than a XBox Series S (significantly so). 

Yes, those who already own an Xbox will probably stay with Xbox, and yes, it will be a large number, but...
I'm focusing on the "power to sell new consoles." I think ~+90% (almost all) of that potential will go to the PS5. I think people who never considered buying a PS5 will appear in large numbers, and that will make the PS5 the best-selling console of 2026.

Also, yes, I know that sales data and projections are extremely unfavorable to my prediction. I believe GTA VI will destroy all expectations and create unpredictable results. It's all based on my belief that GTA VI will do things that no other game would be able to do.

Because of all of those reasons you mentioned, why not just release it day 1 on PC then? Maybe they all aren't valid enough, for GTA 6 to release on consoles first after all... Which may be also the case with the port as well, releasing 2 years later..

It depends on what exactly you mean by large numbers really. I'm expecting its holiday sales this year to be around a million higher than it otherwise would be which is already massive and something no other game would do this late in the lifespan of a console. 

Let's just say that the number I'm thinking is way bigger than 1M. How much? I have no idea. Maybe they will set a new record for PS5?

Imho, GTA VI is just a gigantic "???" In the equation.

As I said before, every data and number is against me. Regardless, i'm still betting in the "unpredictable" factor, the "mystery box" that's GTA VI.

Edit: A personal factor, something that lacks a much larger sample size...

I have about 10 acquaintances who are PC gamers. They are unanimous, they will all buy a PS5 just to play GTA VI, even their children asked for a PS5 to play GTA VI.

I wonder, how many people will do the same? Buy a PS5 to play GTA VI... and I think that number can be around 5~8 million, maybe even 10 million.

Yeah, sounds absurd, I know! But we talking GTA VI, and this game is set to do absurd numbers!