January 2025 Circana (NPD) covers the four-week period from January 4 to 31 and will be released on February 20.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000
4. [#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for January 2024:

1. PS5 - 243K
2. NS - 125K
3. XS - 124K

VGChartz US estimates for December 2025:

1. NS2 - 999K
2. PS5 - 966K
3. XS - 270K
4. NS - 232K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

• PS5 - $399 / $499 Fortnite bundles
• XSX|S - $599 Series X at Walmart / Amazon
• Nex Playground, PC handhelds, etc.

Current schedule for Circana (NPD):

• Jan (Jan 4 - Jan 31) - Feb 20
• Feb (Feb 1 - Feb 28) - Mar 18
• Mar (Mar 1 - Apr 4) - Apr 22
• Apr (Apr 5 - May 2) - May 20

RESULTS

TLDR:

Units: PS5 > NS2 > XBS > NS1 > NEX > PC Portable
Revenue: PS5 > NS2 > XBS > PC Portable > NEX > NS1

Link to the VGChartz article here.

PS5 Outsells Switch 2 in the US in January 2026, Code Vein II Debuts in 11th Place

The PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console in the US for January 2026 in terms of units sold and dollar sales, according to figures from Circana (formerly The NPD Group). Circana includes the dates for the four-week period of January 4 to 31.

The Nintendo Switch 2 was the second best-selling console in both metrics.

The Switch 2 was able to offset the declines in the other three consoles. PS5 saw dollar sales drop 17 percent year-on-year, while the Xbox Series X|S was down 27 percent, and the Switch 1 fell 79 percent.

In terms of units sold the order is PS5 in first, Switch 2 in second, Xbox Series X|S in third, Switch 1 in fourth, NEX Playground in fifth place, and PC portables in fifth place. In terms of dollar sales the order is PS5 in first, Switch 2 in second, Xbox Series X|S in third, PC portables in fourth, NEX Playground in fifth place, and Switch 1 in fifth place.

Overall spending on video games in January increased three percent year-on-year from $4.56 billion to $4.70 billion. Spending on video game content increased three percent from $4.15 billion to $4.27 billion, while video game hardware sales increase 16 percent from $213 million to $248 million. Spending on accessories decreased five percent from $194 million to $185 million.

"Total January projected spending across video game hardware, content and accessories grew 3% when compared to a year ago, to $4.7 billion," said Circana Executive Director and Video Game Industry Analyst Mat Piscatella.

He added, "January video game content spending grew 3% when compared to a year ago, to $4.3B. A 23% increase in subscription spending combined with slight gains across Console (+2%) and PC (+1%) content to offset a small drop in mobile (-1%)."

Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 was the best-selling game in January and is seven year in a row Call of Duty was number one in December. It is now the fifth best-selling game of the year.

Code Vein 2 debuted in 11th place and was the only new release to debut in the top 20 for the month of January. It was the best-selling game on PC.

Final Fantasy VII Remake released on the Switch 2 and Xbox Series X|S this month. On the overall charts the game shot up from 225th to ninth place. It debuted in second on the Nintendo charts and seventh on the Xbox charts.

Here are the top 20 best-selling games in terms of dollars for January 2026:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PlayStation platforms in January 2026:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Xbox platforms in January 2026:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on Nintendo platforms in January 2026:

Here are the top 10 best-selling premium games on PC in January 2026:

NS2: 250k
PS5: 200k
XSX: 45k
NS: 45k

I predict Xbox and Nintendo Switch to be virtually tied and for Switch 2 to outsell the PS5 by about 50k. There is a small chance that the PS5 wins dollar sales, but I think this will go to Switch 2 because you can still purchase PS5 for $399 meaning the average price per unit may be quite cheaper for the PS5.

NS2: 270k
PS5: 205k
XSX: 60k
NS: 35k

1. NS2 - 300K
2. PS5 - 200K
3. XS - 60K
4. NS - 50K

Today?

It should be out in about 11 hours. 9am ET / 6am PT / 2pm UK.

Man the Switch 1 is dead.

Updated the OP with the results.

So less than 200k for PS5 and ~180k for Switch 2?

I think the best comparison we have regarding the first post-holiday month are 3DS (233k) and NS1 (246k) according to VG Data, SW2 is significantly bellow both

Seems like the market is struggling to support so many high priced consoles

PS5 is likely 190K or a little below that with Switch 2 around what you said. Xbox Series did better than I was expecting (70K-75K) even if sales are still bad. Switch 1 is flatlining with sales at like ~30K. Crazy Switch 1 can sell as much or nearly as much in one week in Japan as it did for an entire month in the US. 

I'm still running the numbers with Machina, so our estimates once posted might be a little different than that. There is a little bit of room depending on sales of other devices like the NEX and PC portables as those are counted in Circana's hardware totals.