Listed below, you see every year of sales for the Switch 1. With the Switch 2 out and selling in full force, how much do you think Switch 1 will sell for the calendar 2026 year ? Write your thoughts below.

Over 2 million. Probably about 2.3-2.4 million. That would have it finish 2026 about 4 million units short of PS2 which means beating PS2 in unit sales is going to be very tough.
It is so close to beating DS globally. It either has as we speak or for sure will before this fiscal year ends in March 31.
In a better economic environment, Nintendo could've priced Switch lower to get more people in the ecosystem and it would go past PS2 in the end (or already be there). A cheaper Switch probably could've finished around 162-170 million units even with Switch 2's popularity.

1.5-2.0mil feels about right. Sold 1.4mil during Q3FY26, and predecessor systems often have a very muted holiday in their second post-replacement year. Pulling 0.35-0.5mil per non-holiday quarters and 0.5-0.8mil for the holiday would check out.

It had a nearly 60% drop in 2025 despite having a good first three months and the Switch 2 not releasing till June so the decline should be even bigger this year at say 65-70%. I'll go with around 1.7m. It reaching even just 2m would be a surprisingly good result and with sales slowing down so quickly despite there still being a significant gap between sales and shipments means shipments could be very low this year. Also I like that we shared these four threads though it's a little funny I got both of the very relevant consoles and you the dying ones.

Yep, I was going to write the same.

On the topic though, I am 50/50 if the Switch will finish below or above 2M. It can go either way. I am giving it the benefit of the doubt and vote for above 2M, but won't be surprise if it finishes in the 1.5 - 2M range.

I just can't see the decline not being bigger this year considering the things I mentioned and the fact that the 3DS and DS declined more in 2018 and 2012 compared to 2017 and 2011. Nintendo would have to suddenly start pushing the Switch 1 again but they want people to upgrade to the Switch 2 as fast as possible.

I feel if the Switch 2 price is forced up this year due to component costs and has reduced sales then perhaps there will be a a resurrection of Switch 1 sales. Nintendo made the gap smaller between Switch 1 and Switch 2 but I can't see them increasing the Switch 1 price if the Switch 2 goes up in price so it maybe a better option for many people. Also if Switch 2 doesn't build up a collection of must have titles then less reason to go the Switch 2 route. I must admit I voted for between 1.5-2 million units but I could see it going all the way up to 3 million plus. Nintendo might revive interest in Switch 1 with a new Switch 1 sku to replace all other Switch 1 skus. Nintendo might find the Switch 1 a lifeline if Switch 2 pricing is just too much for casual gamers.

Lots of countries in Africa, Asia and South America with a low penetration of Nintendo Switches which have the potential to take more with lower pricing.

I voted for 2M-2.5M for the sake of me keeping tracking the Switch's sales to see if it manages to reach a hard achievment

I think 2-2.5 million. Would be around a 50% drop from 2025. If console prices do go up because of the RAM shortage and SSD only the Switch 1 would be unaffected due to it using 32 GB flash memory and 4 GB of RAM. It's still at a good price point for new consumers.

I voted for the 2.5m to 3m range. Definitely very optimistic and difficult, but still doable. Ultimately, I see it reaching 158m in shipments by the end of 2026. This would be the first year in which no quarter for Switch 1 exceeds 1m in shipments worldwide.