I think December will be more telling if Switch 2 had a dismal holiday period. PS4 from what I remember beat Switch 1 handily its first November as well. Then Switch went on to win December
I think December will be more telling if Switch 2 had a dismal holiday period. PS4 from what I remember beat Switch 1 handily its first November as well. Then Switch went on to win December
| PortisheadBiscuit said: I think December will be more telling if Switch 2 had a dismal holiday period. PS4 from what I remember beat Switch 1 handily its first November as well. Then Switch went on to win December |
In November 2017, PS4 did beat Switch all the way. In US PS4 sold 1.6M, and Switch only half - 800k. Worldwide - 3.5M for PS4 vs 1.7M for the Switch. December though, Switch won, 4.3M vs 3.9M. But yeah, Switch 2 should rock in December. Historically Nintendo consoles have always been way stronger in December.
Last edited by XtremeBG - 10 hours ago
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Seeing a little bit of concern bordering on "cliff" talk in regard to Switch 2 and astonishment over the PS5's sales.
Guys, let's dial it back a little bit, alright. Take a chill pill.
Considering how aggressive Sony was with their Black Friday deals, I would certainly hope PS5 was #1 in November. We'll see just HOW big the numbers are soon enough, but these results shouldn't really come as a surprise if you're paying attention and know your sales history.
This is par the status quo: Sony gets aggressive with deals and discounts and they dominate November, while Nintendo is content with keeping things simple and letting the increases happen naturally. Then when December/Christmas rolls around, Sony kind of levels out or has a moderate increase, while Nintendo skyrockets. We've seen this movie time and time again; And this one in particular as a very similar plot to 2017.
Specifically, Nov/Dec 2017 when the PS4 was in its prime and the Switch 1 was the new kid in town.
In Nov 2017- Sony did the exact same thing where they had an aggressive Black Friday deal where the PS4 was sold for just $199 and Nintendo didn't do a damn thing and just rode the Switch 1's natural $299 price point. The PS4 outsold Switch 1 by a 2:1 ratio in the US AND Worldwide.
And that was WITH 3D Mario - Super Mario Odyssey had JUST released DAYS before the start of November on Oct 27, 2017.
Then in Dec 2017, the PS4 only increased minimally worldwide (3.5m to 3.9m) and even dropped in the US by almost 600k (1.65m to 1.07m), leaving Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World to pick up the slack; Meanwhile Switch 1 absolutely exploded to almost 2x the sales in the US (816k to 1.46m) and nearly ~2.5x worldwide (1.7m to 4.28m).
It's literally Holiday 2017 all over again - with some notable differences:
- Consider how supply constrained the PS5 was at the start of its life cycle, it shouldn't be surprising that it's selling at such huge levels as the people who wanted one in the beginning can now get one + the drastic decline of Xbox leading to more sales.
- Also consider Switch 2 has been absolutely lapping Switch 1, launches aligned and surpassing even Nintendo's expectations. They revised their forecast last Earnings Release from 15m to 19m for the Fiscal Year, remember that? And I'd be willing to bet my next paycheck they're going to revise it again in their next Earnings Release and that their next forecast will be closer to 25 million than 19 million.
TL:DR - This is absolutely impressive for Sony and the PS5, but this is hardly any cause for concern for Nintendo and Switch 2. We've seen this story play out before and the ending will be no different.
Current Thread
Switch 1 '25 vs DS '11, 3DS '17, and Wii '12
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PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
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People keep mentioning the word “aggressive” for the PS5 discount, yet its price is $25 more expensive compared to BF2024.
I think a lot of people have mistakenly understood the PS5 to have been as heavily discounted in the USA as it was in Europe.
| DekutheEvilClown said: I think a lot of people have mistakenly understood the PS5 to have been as heavily discounted in the USA as it was in Europe. |
Yes, the PS5 discount in the USA was $100 from what I understand which is basically business as usual. It was Europe where the discounts were more aggressive.
UK saw £135 discount direct from Sony. ($180).
| Mar1217 said: I mean we could just copy and paste the Euro sales thread with the same comments here because I feel like the points talked about are gonna be the same |
Except in the Europe thread some people were treating the news as obvious because its "playstation land" or whatever... Despite the Switch and PS4 only being 14% apart in lifetime sales.
| 160rmf said: I am getting some déjà vu from November 2017 NPD. The thread that started the Cliff cultism. |
I wonder if Nintendo needs to make some PR soon because investors will likely start thinking Switch 2 sales is failing off a cliff if they follow sales information. And among online gamers, Switch 2 will soon get a reputation that its only selling good in Japan. Online grifters will have ample opportunity to make ever more youtube videos about Switch 2 failing hard which will solidify those views even more. So Nintendo is in the process of losing the narrative of Switch 2 being succesful, which can be hard to recover from.
| Sephiran said: Are we looking at a real chance that this PS5 price cut actually makes the Switch 2 miss its 19M forecast? Sales aren't looking good either in Europe or in the US. Nintendo shouldn't have raised the forecast before the holiday period, they took a big risk with that and investors will kill them if they fail that forecast. |
Not a freaking chance.
Even if Switch 2 only matches Switch 1's Holiday 2017 of 7.23 million units, that would put Switch 2 at 17.59 million units shipped as of Dec 31, 2025. From there, they'd only need to ship 1.41 million units from Jan-Mar 2026 to meet their forecast. With how fast Switch 2 is selling, there's a bigger chance of SEGA making consoles again than Nintendo lowering their forecast. There's no way in Hell that is going to happen. In fact, I'm expecting the opposite. I expect them to raise their forecast AGAIN at their next Earnings Release.
| Sephiran said: Given the huge success Sony gets from price cuts, its obvious that Nintendo will need to be more open with doing good price promotions this generation over the last. But i think the problem is that Sony can recoup promotions easier due to their huge digital sales ratio and enormous subscription revenue, as long as Nintendo mostly sell physical games at retail and have low subscription revenue, that will limit their ability to make good price promotions. |
You're forgetting one very crucial detail here: Nintendo almost always sells their hardware at a profit right from the start and between their record breaking sales and their software still moving great numbers - All while staying at full price and having little to no discounts - Why on earth would they do promotions when they stand to make more money AND still expand their user base at a higher pace than even they expected? That makes no business sense whatsoever.
| Sephiran said: To be fair i don't really understand how its even possible for Sony to do big price promotions in the US this year, tariffs on countries in Asia are like 20-25 %, meaning Sony should be losing fairly big money on PS5 sales in the US at this price point. But maybe its a loss leader strategy at their part to lose money on hardware sales to get more people into the ecosystem. And they do have huge subscription revenue, huge third party sales, huge digital sales ratio and huge accessory sales, Nintendo has far fewer means to use that same loss leader strategy, because they have less avenues to recoup hardware losses. |
The PS5 is five years in now and is still selling at or above launch price, so Sony is certainly not selling it at a loss at this stage. That plus the fact that it's closer to the end of its life than the beginning and Sony is in a position where they are more recommended, maybe even a little required, to do these promotions to move hardware, than Nintendo. They did something very similar in 2017 and 2018 where in 2017 they did the $199 PS4 Black Friday bundle, and then the next year they did the same deal AND they through a game in there - I can't recall if it was God of War or Spider-Man, but they had a major first party bundle at $199 to drive more hardware sales as the PS4 started to show signs of decline. Similar signs that PS5 have been showed - Dropping from 20.9 million in in FY2023 to 18.5 million in FY2024. Sony is trying to maintain their baseline while Nintendo is trying to build theirs. That's the key difference.
| Sephiran said: I actually wonder how GTA will impact Pokemon gen 10 next year, it won't matter in Japan at all, but will it get any attention in the US and Europe or will everyone just focus on GTA? |
Didn't seem to bother X/Y in 2013 when it was released on the 3DS around the same time as GTA V was released on the PS3/360. It's going to have next to no impact.
Firstly - Those are two totally different styles of games and franchises that cater to totally different audiences. There are millions of people around the world who will buy Nintendo systems JUST for Pokemon. A series that is about as different from Grand Theft Auto as day is from night.
Secondly - It's freaking Pokemon - The biggest media franchise on the planet; Celebrating its 30th anniversary, on its 10th Generation. There are very few games and franchises that can withstand and go toe-to-toe with Grand Theft Auto and do just fine, if not better from the added attention. Pokemon is one of those franchises. It did it before, it will have no problem doing it again. Pokemon is one of those series that will make mountains of cash and sell tons of software and hardware no matter what just because of name on the cover rather than the actual game itself (As demonstrated by the lackluster Switch 1 games still managing to break various franchise sales records and Gen 9 having an actual shot at catching Gen 1 as the best-selling Pokemon games of all-time... Despite Gen 9's various, well-documented issues.)
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Switch 1 '25 vs DS '11, 3DS '17, and Wii '12
Older Threads:
PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition
PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017
Sephiran said:
I wonder if Nintendo needs to make some PR soon because investors will likely start thinking Switch 2 sales is failing off a cliff if they follow sales information. And among online gamers, Switch 2 will soon get a reputation that its only selling good in Japan. Online grifters will have ample opportunity to make ever more youtube videos about Switch 2 failing hard which will solidify those views even more. So Nintendo is in the process of losing the narrative of Switch 2 being succesful, which can be hard to recover from. |
Only among investors/people that don't know what they're talking about. Switch 1 sold 1.7m in its first November. Switch 2 should easily match or beat that. Even though PS5 is on track to possibly sell 4m worldwide. Switch 2 selling around 2m is a perfectly good result for its first November.
The only thing that's making some people take a step back, is that Switch 2 so far has been outselling the Switch 1 launch aligned 2:1 basically, but they were never going to maintain that. Sales in November will be much closer to Switch 1's sales in its first November, which is not a problem.