Until there is a Switch 2 Lite that is actually affordable for the kids part of the market, I don't see Switch 1 Lite in particular going anywhere.

There's nothing else a parent can buy other than that crappy NeX thing or get them into smartphone/tablet gaming, which I doubt Nintendo wants, they want to still get kids from a young age as they've always done.

2035. Calling it now.

I think people underestimate when Nintendo truly discontinues a system even well after the successor is released. The DS came out in 2004 and the GBA didn't get discontinued til 2009, despite the DS at that point barely being more expensive and being backwards compatible, just like the Switch 2's case. A long 5 years after the successor for it to finally be discontinued. The DS was discontinued in 2014, a little more than 3 years after the 3DS.

I have a feeling Nintendo will keep the Switch 1 in production til 2028. I believe the Switch 2 will eventually get a price hike so Nintendo will want to still provide a cheaper option, especially for something like the Switch Lite for those who still want a cheaper handheld experience.

However, I dont think it'll be enough to reach 160 Million tho. Im thinking around 158 Million.

TBF GBA is certainly an outlier, having only been given 3 years before the DS arrived. It really foes just depend on how well the system is selling and/or whether Nintendo has an interest to move on (e.g. Wii U was discontinued more than a month prior to NS1’s launch; 3DS was still selling quite well in 2017/2018 yet was discontinued shortly later).

Last chance to vote, before I reset it (after the new forecast is released).

The less popular option will turn out to be true. 😜

Switch ships almost 156M, and the new forecast is 2M. The poll was reset! I've added separate options for each year as requested! Vote now!

It’s game over now.

2027 sells 2 million - 157.92m

2028 sells 1 million - 158.92m

 2029 sells 500k - 159.42m

 2030 sells 250k - 159.67m

 2031 sells 125k - 159.79m

It’s sad if mods keep this discussion going.

Unfortunately, we still don't have sure answer. The forecast is exactly at the 50/50 line. Although overall it's going more for being short of 160M, there are still a lot of people and also some chance, of getting there. So the conversations continue for at least 1 more year (if not more).

I'd say we basically do have a sure answer now since they'd need to exceed the forecast to have any shot still but considering they failed to meet the initial forecast the last two times and are giving it a significant price increase in the one region it's still selling decently I see no chance of them exceeding the forecast.