I'm counting with more leaks and numbers being reduced even more. Not a big reduction, something like 1~0.5M.

With December we will likely have the Xbox Series X|S around or a little under ~2.5 million sold in 2025 for a lifetime total of ~34.1M. This is ignoring other potential adjustments.

Every time someone complained that another person was low balling Series X/S, they eventually find out they were actually overestimating it.

"I predict 80 million or more more lifetime."

"No way it's selling less than Xbox One."

"Okay it's underperforming but it should still edge out the Xbox One."

"Yeah seems like it'll have trouble matching Xbox One. But 50 million is near guaranteed."

"Only 40 milion lifetime? LMAO come on be reasonable."

And now:

"36 million?! What the heck with the low balling."

I mean you may be right, but I'm not betting anything on it lol. Never underestimate the Series XS overestimation.

Kyuu beat me to it, but a running theme of the last few years is that however low we set the bar, Xbox still finds a way to slide under it with things like price hikes, lack of supply, and constant self-sabotage. Every time it seems like Xbox can't tank any harder, it does.

Then again, through out all of XB1's life and every possible report and data it could get for 8 years (yes the final adjustments of 7M more were made around 2021 if not 2022), it was estimated for a total of 50-51M. Then after 8 years of speculations, reports from this and that, and calculation, almost everyone was wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if in the end that will be similar case with the Series too! For example finishes at 35-36M, and then 4M adjustment (to hit 40M), from some official report in the end (just like that one that got the XB1's final number to 58M).

2022 - 8.64m
2023 - 7.47m (-14% YoY)
2024 - 4.79m (-36% YoY)
2025 - ~2.5m (-48% YoY)

Xbox Series is currently on a very clear trend of collapsing sales. I'm not saying 1.5m is impossible, but that would need a smaller 40% drop YoY and to reverse its current trend of the drop accelerating. While you say 1.5m at least, I'd more say 1.5m at absolute most.

MS has completely given up on the Xbox Series.

Gosh, 2024 to present is depressing for Xbox hardware, as I figured. The statements and actions from Phil Spencer and the others for the past few years lines up with collapsing sales. More and more games on PlayStation. Pretty sure Xbox (OG) sold more in 2005 than Xbox Series did in 2025. Though I don't know if Xbox (OG) sold more in 2006 than Xbox Series as 360 was already off to a good start. 

Original Xbox shipped 4.1m units in 2005, so yeah in the year it was replaced it did way better than the Series last year.

They stopped manufacturing the Original Xbox in August 2005.

The less it sells each year the better chances get for a smaller drop. Cuz its way easier to sell closer to 2.5M than 4.8M

And lower the target, bigger the chances of getting close to. 1.5M should be possible, no matter that the drop percentage will be lower.

By that logic it should have been much easier to sell closer to 4.8m than 7.5m, but the drop got much worse. It's best to look at it proportionally with percentages regardless of how high or low the numerical value is.