With December figures out, Xbox Series stands at 34.17m by VGC tracking; 1.83m to go until the 36m mark.

Xbox should be able to do 1,5m-2m this year right?

So unless we have it overtracked, it should hit 36m (if not in 2026, then sometime in 2027).

It depends on how high its decline is this year, they also may do a repeat of what Nintendo did with the Wii U and stop production when they start mass production of their new hardware in 2027 as well, which would mean Xbox series only has around 1 year to sell more consoles.

Beaten to it, but it all depends on how much they actually produce/push.

If the hardware is selling at a substantial loss (which will be exacerbated now by rising memory prices and not being able to order in large volumes due to low demand) they may decide its not worth it and quietly discontinue it.

Whether the console hits 36m now, (tracking issues aside) is entirely down to MS.

The Series is at almost 34.6M with March, and because of the PS5 price increase there may be some hope for the Series to not drop as much as it would in 2026 and especially with GTA 6 (of course the boost won't be so big for it as with the PS5, but there will still be some help for the sales for sure (both short term and long term). So about 1.4M left to 36M. It's hard to not see it beating that.

It's clearing a little over 100k a month, with a litrle over 1.4m left to go; accounting for holiday increases, there's a solid chance it gets there unless they pull the plug in the next 12 months.

I'd say it should get there no problem unless we get some actual sales data with the new CEO and it shows we need to adjust down. Like with PlayStation under Jim Ryan we did get some PS5 sell-through data before that stopped with the new CEO.

It would be great to get final Xbox 360 figures, along with the Xbox Series X|S.

Yeah the PS5's massive price hike does make the Xbox Series a little more competitive in that they're no longer much more expensive than Sony's machine.
It's still a very one-sided contest, but now it's more like a average-guy-vs-professional-athlete matchup rather than Atom Bomb vs Coughing Baby.

The thing is, it seems Microsoft has scaled down Xbox series production a lot, so for them to go for increased Xbox sales, they would need to scale up that production, but the last thing an AI focused company would do right now is to scale up hardware production for a product that has sold a good bit over 90 % of its lifetime sales potential already, so i expect Xbox series to continue with low production and low sales every month until it gets discontinued.

Or adjust up.

360 though I am pretty sure the final total numbers should be what you have estimated here, around 86M.

90% of it's lifetime sales ? That is what Microsoft defines not us. They can change everything and skyrocket it's sales. Just like the new CEO change the gamepass price, they can change the xbox price and eat the cost. Put it back at the launch prices, alongside with big ramp up in the production, delay the helix until end of 2028 (if it's not it's target as of now) and you got a turn over for the remaining 2 years and a half for the Series. With all of that it can reach even 50M.