Yeah lifetime a lot depends on how long they manufacture the thing. The Xbox One got the axe in 2020, the same year the Series released, so if they release Helix next year and kill Series then and there, 38m may be out of reach.

On the other hand, if it keeps rolling off the assembly line, albiet in small numbers, for a few more years yet, who knows

I think it can do it even if it gets discontinued by 2028. But it will be very tight race.

The Series is really not that bad when you think about it, in terms of drops per year, and drops after the last 2 price hikes. Just looked at the monthly worldwide numbers now. Last year the weakest months were July with 138k (before the previous price hike, not this year's one) and also May at 148k, right after the first price hike. Now two price hikes later, and more than year later the Series did 104k for August. So it really doesn't look that bad. Yea it will surely drop more next year, but if you look some of the posts here and in other threads about it, from this and even last year, you would think that the Series was going to fall under 100k even before the holidays of last year, let alone until August of this year. And yet here we are, with 2/3 of the year gone, and the Series is still floating above 100k per month. The chances of dropping off a cliff, like 50% or even more worldwide going into next year, given that data alone, are not so big. Like some 700k for the next 4 months of the year are almost a given, based on the current performance. And with how November is twice or even more sometimes of the months before that, and how December is like 3 times or more the normal month numbers, and that there is GTA VI launching now, which will for sure give some boost to the Xbox, there is a decent chance it may even reach 2M this year. And with some similar, even slightly bigger drop than that for 2027, of let's say 1.2M, the 38M is really a possibility there, as long as there is some ~600k left for 2028, and they don't discontinue it by end of next year, and leave it on the market till end of 2028.

IMO With the console now being the focus MS will continue to manufacture the Series years after the Helix is released as cross gen is here to stay - more console exclusives will be released such as ES6, Fallout so 38m is definitely a possibility as the Series will be the cheapest way to get into the ecosystem

They've talked about Helix being a "family" of systems, so it could have its own entry level Series S equivalent.

While you'd think the inevitably super-long crossgen period would mean keeping the Series around for years, they did axe the Xbox One the same year Series came out, so who knows.

The main reason I can see them keeping the Series rolling off the assembly line is cos next gen while likely be super expensive so they may want to retain a cheaper option, but heck, even a Series S isn't that cheap any more.

Without a doubt it will make it to 36 million based an VGChartz estimates... the frustrating part is not knowing if it is representative of reality.