Chances are small but why not?
Without good decisions, there will be no good sales.
The closure of game development studios is also having a severe impact in this area.

We are almost at August, and I am still not sure 100% that GTA 6 is releasing this holiday. It might very easily get delayed till 2027.
But for Xbox, 36M are in the bag easily by end of this year. Then 1M should be locked for next year, as much as sales fall, even if it does like 50k per month, with some small holiday boost it still hits 1M. So the real question is Will it reach 38M?

Go Xbox! You can do it!

I still think numbers are going to be adjusted down. Kepler, AMD leaker...I trust in Kepler's numbers; With all due respect to Trunks hard work, the Xbox numbers here are overtracked.

With this month's numbers, Xbox Series is now at 35.32 million, which leaves 680,000 units left until the 36m mark.

It's doing it, if not by end of the year, then next year, however it's very likely it will do it by end of this year.

Yeah at this point, unless they stop making it or something it should get there, though the question remains when.

I'll keep the countdown going til it hits 36m, then maybe we can adjust to 37m.

At this time, if it doesn't fall of a cliff in 2027, I think even 38M is possibility in the end. This year with some holiday boost it should reach 1.8M. Which will put it at 36M. Next year if it can reach at least 1.2M which will be a normal drop, it will be at 37.2M, and even a 50% drop after that, it getting it to 37.8M, with 200k left to 38M.

Oh wow Xbox is actually winning one of these!!!

That said, 1.8 to 1.2 million wouldn't be a normal drop. Series XS got a $100-$150 price hike in August with possibly more to come. It should fall off a cliff after this holiday season. But GTA6 may do wonders and keep the Series S hardware "not dead".

So far in 2026 the Xbox HW numbers are just over 1m units sold through (if I'm reading the chart correctly).
They probably can do like ~500-600k more by the end of the year.

That should put it close to 36m alone.
So yes... early 2027, I expect it to break past 36m units.

Yeah I could see it sneaking past 38m sometime like ~2029 (probably towards the end) or early 2030.
IF Microsoft keeps manufacturing the Series models.  Which is basically what your saying here as well.