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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2023 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out Now

DonFerrari said:

Usually sales curve go up at the early years, plateau near the peak and them have sharp decline. Not usual at all to see a console in the third year having a 25% drop YoY to see a big increase in sales for the 4th year. And you want to believe the 5th year would also be better than 2022/2023? Well I don't think it will come through, but best of luck on that (also it isn't uncommon for consoles that didn't get much traction to see peak on 2nd or 3rd year).

First of all, as I said, it may have a good holiday which will put it's 3rd year above it's 2nd and 1st year.

Second, a big increase ? No. 10M is not a big increase from 8.5M or for example 9M for this year. Just a slight one.

And for the 5th year, yes why not ? Consoles don't have 5 year cycles anymore. In fact Microsoft themselves confirmed that this gen will be till 2028. So 2025 makes it still in the middle years. So 2025 should be like 2017 for the XB1 - still peak period, maybe the last year of it.

So if they have a nice boost in the holidays now, the year will be like this

2021 - 8M

2022 - 8.6M

2023 - 9M

And peak period may be 2024 and 2025 with both of 10M and obviously decline after that. Nice and normal sales curve.

Let's not forget that PS5 was decently down YOY last year till the very last minute too (last two or three months of the year where it compensate).



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XtremeBG said:
DonFerrari said:

Usually sales curve go up at the early years, plateau near the peak and them have sharp decline. Not usual at all to see a console in the third year having a 25% drop YoY to see a big increase in sales for the 4th year. And you want to believe the 5th year would also be better than 2022/2023? Well I don't think it will come through, but best of luck on that (also it isn't uncommon for consoles that didn't get much traction to see peak on 2nd or 3rd year).

First of all, as I said, it may have a good holiday which will put it's 3rd year above it's 2nd and 1st year.

Second, a big increase ? No. 10M is not a big increase from 8.5M or for example 9M for this year. Just a slight one.

And for the 5th year, yes why not ? Consoles don't have 5 year cycles anymore. In fact Microsoft themselves confirmed that this gen will be till 2028. So 2025 makes it still in the middle years. So 2025 should be like 2017 for the XB1 - still peak period, maybe the last year of it.

So if they have a nice boost in the holidays now, the year will be like this

2021 - 8M

2022 - 8.6M

2023 - 9M

And peak period may be 2024 and 2025 with both of 10M and obviously decline after that. Nice and normal sales curve.

Let's not forget that PS5 was decently down YOY last year till the very last minute too (last two or three months of the year where it compensate).

Even succesful consoles peak on their 3rd year, usually by the 5th they are already way into decline and if not very sucesful they are even discontinued.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

Even succesful consoles peak on their 3rd year, usually by the 5th they are already way into decline and if not very sucesful they are even discontinued.

Last home console generations are 7 to 8 years, all of them peak in the 3rd 4th and 5th years, see PS3/360, see PS4/XB1, see even PS2 if you want where it peaked in it's 4th year and it's 5th was really close to it's top year. This gen will continue till 2028. If we look at history and the gen longevity it makes sense to peak in the 2024 and 2025 years. Also because this gen had stock issues first two years, this is also one more reason for the peak period to be moved with at least a year, or maybe even two. Also those will probably be the peak years for the PS5 as well.

Also XB1 wasn't much successful however it was on the market for 7 years (as main console) and yes, in it's 5th year (2018) was on a slight decline, however it still can be said that it's peaked period was from 2016 to 2018, since the decline in 2018 was only slight and was almost on par with 2017 and 2016. Same goes for the PS4 as well. Even PS3/360 if you want was something similar.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 29 October 2023

My sales comparison threads:

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