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Forums - Sales Discussion - September 2023 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out Now

curl-6 said:

Starfield barely gave Xbox any bump. Even with the Activision deal going through, I feel like they're a spent force this gen, I'd be surprised if they manage to significantly outsell the Xbox One.

They're basically dead in the water at this point, and if even the newest big Bethesda game can't change that, I doubt anything can.

kazuyamishima said:

Japan is carrying the Switch, everywhere else, numbers are down down.

It's in its 7th year, of course sales are going down, most consoles are dead or dying by this point.

Considering sales curve I would say that even outselling X1 isn't ensured, and that is investing 100B on the system and increasing GP on consoles to saturation point already.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network

Link to VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch 2023 Americas Sales Comparison Charts Through September

Here we see data representing the sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and two legacy platforms (PlayStation 4 and Xbox One) over comparable periods for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2020 – (January 2020 to September 2020)

2021 – (January 2021 to September 2021)

2022 – (January 2022 to September 2022)

2023 – (January 2023 to September 2023)

"Year to date" sales for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2023 versus 2022 and 2023 versus 2021 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox Series X|S
    • 2.38 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 716,462 units (-23.1%)

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch
    • 3.31 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 427,016 units (-11.4%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 5
    • 4.41 million units sold year-to-date
    • Up year-on-year 1,337,807 units (43.5%)
  • PlayStation 4
    • 0.07 million units sold year-to-date
    • Up year-on-year 18,807 (38.1%)


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 said:

It's in its 7th year, of course sales are going down, most consoles are dead or dying by this point.

The PS2 wasn't. In fact it went out to sell 30% of it's sales lifetime after it's 6th year.

However what he is trying to say it mostly about the Switch is down more than expected in comparison to the previous months in the year, as they were almost flat with 2022 and now the difference is bigger. In other words, Switch is way more down this month than it was every other month.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 19 October 2023

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

Starfield barely gave Xbox any bump. Even with the Activision deal going through, I feel like they're a spent force this gen, I'd be surprised if they manage to significantly outsell the Xbox One.

They're basically dead in the water at this point, and if even the newest big Bethesda game can't change that, I doubt anything can.

It's in its 7th year, of course sales are going down, most consoles are dead or dying by this point.

Considering sales curve I would say that even outselling X1 isn't ensured, and that is investing 100B on the system and increasing GP on consoles to saturation point already.

Yeah I am starting to doubt it will even outsell the Xbone, which is astounding poor considering how badly they fucked up that console. It beggars belief how badly they've handled the Xbox brand for the last decade.

XtremeBG said:
curl-6 said:

It's in its 7th year, of course sales are going down, most consoles are dead or dying by this point.

The PS2 wasn't. In fact it went out to sell 30% of it's sales lifetime after it's 6th year.

However what he is trying to say it mostly about the Switch is down more than expected in comparison to the previous months in the year, as they were almost flat with 2022 and now the difference is bigger. In other words, Switch is way more down this month than it was every other month.

I said "most consoles".

The way I see it, it's more that the last few months were abnormally higher than they otherwise would be thanks to TOTK reinvigorating the system, now it's coming back to a more a more natural level for a highly successful console in year 7. But the lull will likely only be temporary; Wonder should provide another boost.



trunkswd said:

Link to VGChartz article here.

PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch 2023 Americas Sales Comparison Charts Through September

Here we see data representing the sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and two legacy platforms (PlayStation 4 and Xbox One) over comparable periods for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2020 – (January 2020 to September 2020)

2021 – (January 2021 to September 2021)

2022 – (January 2022 to September 2022)

2023 – (January 2023 to September 2023)

"Year to date" sales for 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2023 versus 2022 and 2023 versus 2021 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox Series X|S
    • 2.38 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 716,462 units (-23.1%)

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch
    • 3.31 million units sold year-to-date
    • Down year-on-year 427,016 units (-11.4%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 5
    • 4.41 million units sold year-to-date
    • Up year-on-year 1,337,807 units (43.5%)
  • PlayStation 4
    • 0.07 million units sold year-to-date
    • Up year-on-year 18,807 (38.1%)

Things aren't looking good for MS console sales from now to the end of the gen.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
curl-6 said:
DonFerrari said:

Considering sales curve I would say that even outselling X1 isn't ensured, and that is investing 100B on the system and increasing GP on consoles to saturation point already.

Yeah I am starting to doubt it will even outsell the Xbone, which is astounding poor considering how badly they fucked up that console. It beggars belief how badly they've handled the Xbox brand for the last decade.

XtremeBG said:

The PS2 wasn't. In fact it went out to sell 30% of it's sales lifetime after it's 6th year.

However what he is trying to say it mostly about the Switch is down more than expected in comparison to the previous months in the year, as they were almost flat with 2022 and now the difference is bigger. In other words, Switch is way more down this month than it was every other month.

I said "most consoles".

The way I see it, it's more that the last few months were abnormally higher than they otherwise would be thanks to TOTK reinvigorating the system, now it's coming back to a more a more natural level for a highly successful console in year 7. But the lull will likely only be temporary; Wonder should provide another boost.

And considering that sales is going down in the third year (more than on previous gen) I would say the excuses of the launch of X1 being bigger because of X360 momentum (while claiming it wasn't bigger because of the problems on the reveal, even ignoring that most of the fans on the site were saying those were great moves) and Series being lower because of the fail of X1 (while Series have garner basically full love from Xbox fans) but couldn't increase makes it look like they were all excuses and Xbox really fails to get any traction when PS isn't fucking up (the month Series were able to win basically were due to lack of inventory from PS).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

Seems like Starfield although giving Xbox their best September since 2016 wasn't enough to move the needle (and well seems like would be lower than X1 September 2015) and PS5 sales although lower than previous year will likely rebounce a lot on October.

DonFerrari said:

Considering sales curve I would say that even outselling X1 isn't ensured, and that is investing 100B on the system and increasing GP on consoles to saturation point already.

DonFerrari said:

Things aren't looking good for MS console sales from now to the end of the gen.

DonFerrari said:

And considering that sales is going down in the third year (more than on previous gen) I would say the excuses of the launch of X1 being bigger because of X360 momentum (while claiming it wasn't bigger because of the problems on the reveal, even ignoring that most of the fans on the site were saying those were great moves) and Series being lower because of the fail of X1 (while Series have garner basically full love from Xbox fans) but couldn't increase makes it look like they were all excuses and Xbox really fails to get any traction when PS isn't fucking up (the month Series were able to win basically were due to lack of inventory from PS).



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Europe Hardware Estimates for September 2023

Link to VGChartz article here.

The PlayStation 5 was the best-selling console in Europe with 633,693 units sold for September 2023, according to VGChartz estimates. The PlayStation 5 has now sold an estimated 13.80 million units lifetime in Europe.

The Nintendo Switch sold an estimated 224,263 units to bring its lifetime sales to 33.33 million units. The Xbox Series X|S sold 193,914 units to bring their lifetime sales to 6.63 million units. The PlayStation 4 sold an estimated 6,505 units to bring its lifetime sales to 45.87 million units.

PS5 sales compared to the same month for the PS4 in 2016 are up by over 56,000 units, while the Xbox Series X|S compared to the same month for the Xbox One are up by nearly 10,000 units. PS4 sold 577,372 units for the month of September 2016 and Xbox One sales were at 184,215 units.

PlayStation 5 sales compared to the same month a year ago are up by 303,993 (92.2%). Xbox Series X|S sales are down by 34,875 units (-15.2%) and Nintendo Switch sales are down by 80,284 units (-26.4). The PlayStation 4 is up by 5,200 units (398.5%) year-over-year.

Looking at sales month-on-month, PlayStation 5 sales are up over 36,000 units, Xbox Series X|S sales are up by nearly 69,000 units, and Nintendo Switch sales are down by over 15,000 units. It should be noted there are five weeks in September, while there were four in August.

2023 year-to-date, the PlayStation 5 has sold an estimated 4.33 million units, the Nintendo Switch has sold 2.53 million units, and the Xbox Series X|S has sold 1.21 million units.

Monthly Sales:

Europe hardware estimates for September 2023 (Followed by lifetime sales):

  1. PlayStation 5 - 633,693 (13,804,055)
  2. Switch - 224,263 (33,333,078)
  3. Xbox Series X|S - 193,914 (6,632,246)
  4. PlayStation 4 - 6,505 (45,865,729)

Weekly Sales:

Europe September 2, 2023 hardware estimates:

  1. PlayStation 5 - 147,150
  2. Switch - 46,292
  3. Xbox Series X|S - 43,092
  4. PlayStation 4 - 1,325

Europe September  9, 2023 hardware estimates:

  1. PlayStation 5 - 140,004
  2. Switch - 45,049
  3. Xbox Series X|S - 40,412
  4. PlayStation 4 - 1,331

Europe September 16, 2023 hardware estimates:

  1. PlayStation 5 - 102,495
  2. Switch - 43,496
  3. Xbox Series X|S - 33,124
  4. PlayStation 4 - 1,288

Europe September 23, 2023 hardware estimates:

  1. PlayStation 5 - 104,984
  2. Switch - 43,446
  3. Xbox Series X|S - 30,929
  4. PlayStation 4 - 1,278

Europe September 30, 2023 hardware estimates:

  1. PlayStation 5 - 139,060
  2. Xbox Series X|S - 46,357
  3. Switch - 45,980
  4. PlayStation 4 - 1,283


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Thank you very much, @trunkswd!

You really have to wonder, looking at these Europe sales, if Sony at some point will provide them a little gift card or something, haha.

Europe continuing to produce great numbers for the brand Playstation, it has definitely become Playstation's biggest market. Sony must be very glad to have this kind of loyal fanbase.

As I mentioned in the August thread, Sony can reach their forecast for the fiscal year '23 if they are going to release the Slim until February at latest. As we know today, the Slim will be arriving in November.

My prediction:

Spiderman 2, PS5 Slim, PSPR, Black Friday and Christmas season, possibly one or two big announcements/presentations at the Game Awards in December will be enough to carry PS5 to ~25m by 31st March 2024. I even suspect sales to settle at 25.5m to 26m.

I am thrilled for what's still to come in the second half-time of PS5's lifecycle.



Panicradio said:

Thank you very much, @trunkswd!

You really have to wonder, looking at these Europe sales, if Sony at some point will provide them a little gift card or something, haha.

Europe continuing to produce great numbers for the brand Playstation, it has definitely become Playstation's biggest market. Sony must be very glad to have this kind of loyal fanbase.

As I mentioned in the August thread, Sony can reach their forecast for the fiscal year '23 if they are going to release the Slim until February at latest. As we know today, the Slim will be arriving in November.

My prediction:

Spiderman 2, PS5 Slim, PSPR, Black Friday and Christmas season, possibly one or two big announcements/presentations at the Game Awards in December will be enough to carry PS5 to ~25m by 31st March 2024. I even suspect sales to settle at 25.5m to 26m.

I am thrilled for what's still to come in the second half-time of PS5's lifecycle.

He keeps doing a great work



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."