September 2023 VGChartz Estimates Thread - Worldwide Estimates Out Now

[DonFerrari]

XtremeBG said:

DonFerrari said:

Usually sales curve go up at the early years, plateau near the peak and them have sharp decline. Not usual at all to see a console in the third year having a 25% drop YoY to see a big increase in sales for the 4th year. And you want to believe the 5th year would also be better than 2022/2023? Well I don't think it will come through, but best of luck on that (also it isn't uncommon for consoles that didn't get much traction to see peak on 2nd or 3rd year).

First of all, as I said, it may have a good holiday which will put it's 3rd year above it's 2nd and 1st year.

Second, a big increase ? No. 10M is not a big increase from 8.5M or for example 9M for this year. Just a slight one.

And for the 5th year, yes why not ? Consoles don't have 5 year cycles anymore. In fact Microsoft themselves confirmed that this gen will be till 2028. So 2025 makes it still in the middle years. So 2025 should be like 2017 for the XB1 - still peak period, maybe the last year of it.

So if they have a nice boost in the holidays now, the year will be like this

2021 - 8M

2022 - 8.6M

2023 - 9M

And peak period may be 2024 and 2025 with both of 10M and obviously decline after that. Nice and normal sales curve.

Let's not forget that PS5 was decently down YOY last year till the very last minute too (last two or three months of the year where it compensate).

Even succesful consoles peak on their 3rd year, usually by the 5th they are already way into decline and if not very sucesful they are even discontinued.