For a while, I felt that PS5 would just miss the PS4 and sell around 110m, maybe 115m. After see their recent financial results, I feel that there is a good shot of the PS5 outselling the PS4. This really depends on if GTA VI makes it by the end of this year though.

I'm still thinking the PS6 should launch in 2027, so with that in mind, I could see sales looking like this for the rest of PS5's life:

2025: 18m

2026: 15m

2027: 7m

2028: ~4.5m

2029: ~2.9m

2030: ~1m

That would bring it to about 123m, so it would have a bit of wiggle room in case it gets discontinued early or if I overestimated any numbers.

I'm with Torpoleon on this one.... I used to think it would just barely outsell the PS4... like reaching 120m or so.
That was early last year. However after their resent quarter, and financial results... I too think it can do better than I was orginally expecting.

My current thinking is if the gen is long enough, it should reach 130m+.

Like if this year, because of GTA, it does like ~24m sales total (for the year),... that would be almost 100m PS5 out there, by early 2026.
Give it another 3-4 years, to sell like 30m+ consoles before the next Playstation 6... sure why not.

I hope Sony have upped production, and give a slight price cut on units... and do better than this years (20.2m).

They should aim higher, and make good use of GTA.
Full push, on selling units, even if it comes lower overall revenue/profits this year, build that base of consumers.


I'm thinking 2025, could be a 20m+ year.... with GTA and a price cut.....  maybe like 24m.
Maybe I'm too optimistic? Time will tell.

Just gonna let it here that I predicted PS4 doing 120M and XO doing 60M back in 2014 and it was pretty much on spot.
I've always said the PS5 would do 130M, as soon or even before it released, so let's see if it'll be close too.
Tbh I also said 30M for the Wii U and I didn't expect the Switch to cross 50M as its price was revealed, so... lol.

For PS5 i would aim a bit higer with 130- 140 million but closer to the former. My prediction did not change and it won't because of a single multi game. For Switch 2 i predict 30- 50 million LTD minimum because we do not know nothing expect a trailer. PS6 and NeXtBox the same. In general i think people are putting way to much hopes in price cuts or some games. While price cuts could help to soften the fall, they can't prevent it. It did not happen in Gen 7 (PS3 599- wait till it gets cheaper), it did not happen with the WiiU and it won't happen here. Some people here have fanboy glasses on their eyes and many of them are blue! We all know GTAVI is coming. Why should people wait that long? Yes there will be an increase but not as much as some hope for. Attacking me and even threatening me with banning or even do so won't change that. Yes GTA is a beloved franchise, but so are others as well. There might be a month or 2 with higher sales but this will be christmas time. If GTAVI is delayed in 2026 its basically to late to hope for a new peak. If MS really pushed out their new Xbox in 2026, Sony sure as hell will not wait more than 1 year (we already know from Sony themselves that PS5 is done with its first part of its lifecycle by late 2023 and we recently got official information that PS6 will launch also if PS5 was still running good).They won't wait till PS5 is down to <10 million/year like Nintendo currently are. They do not want to give MS an extra year. We all know how this turned out with Xbox 360 vs PS3. I say it now: Anything later than late 2027 is suicide and anything later than late 2028 will NOT happen for PS6 launch! Remember what i said. 

That's not really a good idea. Technology wise, we are seeing a move from traditional gpus to "AI-heavy" gpus with a development that has to prove itself maybe one more generation.

Issuing something in 2027 means the design cycle has to close pretty soon, locking you out of the deveopment too early. NVidia has more or less proven that improvements on the "conventional side" of gpus are pretty much non-existant comparing 40x0 to 50x0 gpus. If Sony wants a PS6 much more powerful than a PS5 Pro, they have to think hard for another 1-2 years. In any case, it won't be an easy decision. If manufacturing prices stay as they are, or even further increase due to Trump's incoming attack on Taiwan, an $750 PS6 is not out of the question...

My guess is they will want to drag out the PS5 period for at least another 3 years.

For 2024 it shipped 0.8m more than the PS4 did in it's equivalent year (2017) so it's now only 1.5m behind the PS4 in shipments. If it can continue to outsell the PS4 in the years ahead and it gets an extra year on top of that (with the PS6 rumoured for 2028) then breaking the 130m mark is definitely on the table.

Before the PS4 and Xbox One launched, I predicted PS4 to sell 115 million and Xbox to sell less than half of that. It's an unbeatable accuracy on paper, but some of my conditions weren't met, so I kinda got lucky.

Before this generation started, I predicted this gen to be significantly more one-sided than the previous one, with PS5 selling about 140 million and Series XS doing worse than Xbox One. But virtually none of my conditions were met and many unforseen events took place (price hikes instead of the traditional drops, a very few exclusives, COVID woes, wars, Zenimax and ABK acquisitions, etc) And yet once again my initial predicted numbers might end up accurate.

Pricedrops, lifecycle, and post PS6-launch support will determine whether or not it will outsell the PS4 by a wide margin, but it looks like outselling it is probable.

From now on, it won't be so hard to outsell or outship the PS4. We enter in the 2018 year for the PS4. It's at 18M, and 2025 will probably end somewhere around that number, and if GTA VI boost the sales, I can even see it breaking the 20M mark, although I think the GTA VI will be delayed till 2026. So if I have to guess how it's gonna go, it can de 17-18M this year (without GTA VI), 17-18M next year (because of GTA VI release, otherwise I would put it at 15-16M for 2026), which in both cases will beat the 2019 of PS4 at 14M, and then it depends when the successor releases, if it's not release till 2028, then I can see it doing at least 13-14M in 2027 and something around 8-10M in 2028 when it's most likely the PS6 will launch. Also I think PS6 will release at least 4 years after the PS5 Pro, just like the PS5 released 4 years after the PS4 Pro.

So the most likely case at this moment for me is:
2025 - 17/18M or around 90M total sold units by end of 2025.
2026 - 17/18M (because of GTA VI) or 107/108M by end of 2026.
2027 - 13/14M or around 120M by end of 2027. (assuming 2028 release for the successor)
2028 - 8-10M (assuming launch of the PS6 in the end of that year) or 128-130M by end of 2028.
2029/2030 - 4/5M, those will be it's last years on the market, finishing around or slightly above 130M.

I'm positive the PS6 will release in 2028.

The question is if Sony should release it mid year to enjoy 2 sales boosts (launch + holidays) as Nintendo is doing, or if they still want to stick with right before the holidays timeframe.

But 2028 feels like a guarantee right now, no need to rush it.

Sony never has done this, so I bet it won't do it again. It always stuck with holiday launches, so why change it now ? Also, we are not sure exactly what Nintendo is doing as of this moment. I won't be surprised if it decides to launch the system at the end of the year, which will surely help the sales of the Switch 1 even more to reach the 160M mark.