I feel like there are some very convincing arguments here that sway my mind to thinking 2024 is very possible.
I just can’t get over the fact that just a year or so ago (might’ve been 2 by now, time flies) Nintendo said that the switch was only half way through its life cycle. I really think they’re going to want to milk the switch for as long as they can. The wii to Wii U mistake may have scared them bad enough to not want to rush to a successor coming off of a successful console.
So therefore, I am more likely to believe that BOTW 2 was delayed to spring to coincide with the release of a switch pro rather than the switch 2.