My final guess is 150 millions total sales.

I think that Nintendo is going to ship more than they've predicted this FY due to TotK providing a rather unprecedented boost for a console in it's 7th year in addition to a new mainline 2D Mario game.

I think by March 2024 Switch will have shipped 141-142M consoles. I don't think we are going to hear much about a new console until the summer.

That said, they'd still need 18M more to reach 160M and, with the way consoles have been dropping like a cliff after their successors release, I don't think we are going to get that if Switch 2 launches in 2024. I think that it will sell just shy of 10M more after it's successor is announced/revealed

If Switch 2 is announced after Christmas 2024, Nintendo will achieve the most successful console ever.

Because when the next console is announced, the Switch will only sell between 7 and 13 million more. and by then there should be 150 million consoles already sold

Yeah I think it will definitely hit 15m this fiscal year. So probably 141m by end of this fiscal year. Let's say another 6-8 months to sell before the successor launches, should be >145m by start of next gen if successor launches Fall 2024. 160m ain't happening, but 150m very much in the cards depending on Nintendo's strategy for Switch's post-life. Since next gen will presumably be priced at or right around OLED price, Nintendo is gonna need to start dropping the price of Switch if they intend it to keep selling past the launch of the successor. If they don't drop price Switch won't hit 150m, if they do it almost certainly will, but should remain behind PS2 and DS.

I don't know where you get the data from, however the numbers are like this:

DS: 9M (2011)

3DS: 6M (2017)

Wii: 5M (2012)

PS4: 8M (2020)

You're definitely underestimating the Switch's sales here. The Switch will likely reach 150M without any price cut. Assuming the Switch reaches 140M by March 2024, next fiscal year a reasonable amount should be 7M the year Switch 2 launches putting it at 147M by March 2025. 

After March 2025 Switch sales likely won't drop from 7M automatically to 0. Nintendo will likely keep supporting Switch 1 with original games to take advantage of the large install base and keep it around as a safety net in case Switch 2 underperformed. Even with zero price cuts and Switch 2 having BC the Switch could easily sell 3M-5M after March 2025 before it discontinue. The DS still sold another 5M after the 3DS released and being around the same price, Nintendo could perform the same type of numbers with the Switch.

I made the prediction of 152M under the assumption the Switch will never get a price cut, there's still a possibility it may fall just short of that but I think it's more likely it at least slightly exceeds 150M without any price cuts.

If there are price cuts, especially ones as significant as what the PS2 & DS got at the end of their lifecycles, I'd say 160M has a good chance of happening, I just don't think that any price cuts are gonna happen.

My prediction...
>I can see 140mil hit by the end of this current fiscal year.
>Switch Successor releases late next year; Switch will probably sell through maybe 5-7mil fiscal '24(?).
>In conclusion: I could see 147mil as a good ballpark estimate for the lowest figures. However, I anticipate sales to remain stronger than many may expect -> hence, I say 151mil.

Anything over 150 is gravy honestly.

Nintendo would rather have 150 mill with minimal/no price cuts than 160 with price cuts. So Switch can say they got to 150 while never dropping the price below X amount, that's something.

Switch 2 is going to have more challenges, with no COVID boost (well hopefully we don't have another pandemic for a long, long time if ever) and no new 3D Zelda in the launch window. That's gotta be the focus and challenge for Nintendo. COVID boost in a way for the Switch was like for a person having their 30s but not actually aging at all in their 30s. It kind of gave the system a 18 month boost where it didn't show signs of normal decline and they didn't have to release a whole lot of software after Animal Crossing (which was completed right as the pandemic hit ... very fortunate timing) for most of the pandemic.

Like I said it depends on price cuts. If a Switch 2 with backwards compatibility costs $350, and a Switch OLED costs $350, nobody in their right mind would buy a Switch OLED, or even an original Switch at $300. Even if Switch 2 is priced at $400 (which honestly I doubt it will be) there won't be many Switches selling at $300 and $350, so most Switch sales at that point would be people looking for the cheap Lite. So unless Nintendo does something stupid like no do backward compatibility, if there is no price cuts on Switch by the time next gen launches Switch sales will definitely plummet to barely anything.

So if Switch is at 141m end of March 2024, assume it'll still be selling maybe two million a quarter the next 6 months, and then let's say Switch 2 comes out in the Fall, Switch holiday sales are gonna be real low. So let's say 145m by the Fall around when Switch 2 launches. If Nintendo does nothing to keep Switch sales going (ie significant price cuts to create a market for it as a cheap system compared to successor) it might still do a couple million that holiday just cuz but then will drop to a few hundred thousand a quarter in 2025, so Nintendo may as well cut off production of it by end of 2025 at those kinda of numbers, leaving it finishing at probably in the 148m-150m range.

On the other hand, if Nintendo drops Switch do say $150/$230/$280 before next gen starts, to give it a market still once a presumably backwards compatible $350 or maybe at most $400 successor launches, then sure it can still sell because it will still have a separate market for itself. In that case it can keep selling a million-plus per quarter throughout 2025 most likely and keep selling in 2026 and probably a bit in 2027. In that case we're talking probably 141m March '25, maybe 148m end of 2025, 149m March 2025, maybe 152m end of 2025, maybe even getting up to around 154m where the DS is at when it's all over in like 2027. But that scenario absolutely requires either Nintendo screwing up big time with the successor (ie no backwards compatibility or moving away from hybrid gaming or adding some costly gimmick to make it over $400) or it requires Nintendo to give the Switch price cuts. Something to give the Switch a market still instead of letting the successor completely overlap its market.

At this point it's almost irrelevant whether the Switch sells 160 mil or not. The Switch is already the most successful console ever and it has never had a price cut.

Having said that, I still think 160 mil is very much doable depending on how long Nintendo "delays" the successor.