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javi741 on 01 August 2023
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Slownenberg said:
Doctor_MG said:

I think that Nintendo is going to ship more than they've predicted this FY due to TotK providing a rather unprecedented boost for a console in it's 7th year in addition to a new mainline 2D Mario game.

I think by March 2024 Switch will have shipped 141-142M consoles. I don't think we are going to hear much about a new console until the summer.

That said, they'd still need 18M more to reach 160M and, with the way consoles have been dropping like a cliff after their successors release, I don't think we are going to get that if Switch 2 launches in 2024. I think that it will sell just shy of 10M more after it's successor is announced/revealed

Yeah I think it will definitely hit 15m this fiscal year. So probably 141m by end of this fiscal year. Let's say another 6-8 months to sell before the successor launches, should be >145m by start of next gen if successor launches Fall 2024. 160m ain't happening, but 150m very much in the cards depending on Nintendo's strategy for Switch's post-life. Since next gen will presumably be priced at or right around OLED price, Nintendo is gonna need to start dropping the price of Switch if they intend it to keep selling past the launch of the successor. If they don't drop price Switch won't hit 150m, if they do it almost certainly will, but should remain behind PS2 and DS.

You're definitely underestimating the Switch's sales here. The Switch will likely reach 150M without any price cut. Assuming the Switch reaches 140M by March 2024, next fiscal year a reasonable amount should be 7M the year Switch 2 launches putting it at 147M by March 2025. 

After March 2025 Switch sales likely won't drop from 7M automatically to 0. Nintendo will likely keep supporting Switch 1 with original games to take advantage of the large install base and keep it around as a safety net in case Switch 2 underperformed. Even with zero price cuts and Switch 2 having BC the Switch could easily sell 3M-5M after March 2025 before it discontinue. The DS still sold another 5M after the 3DS released and being around the same price, Nintendo could perform the same type of numbers with the Switch.

I made the prediction of 152M under the assumption the Switch will never get a price cut, there's still a possibility it may fall just short of that but I think it's more likely it at least slightly exceeds 150M without any price cuts.

If there are price cuts, especially ones as significant as what the PS2 & DS got at the end of their lifecycles, I'd say 160M has a good chance of happening, I just don't think that any price cuts are gonna happen.