I think it's probably a safe bet that Mario Kart just sells any time in the year, lol. 

Super Mario Kart - Aug/September 1992

Mario Kart 64 - December '96 (Japan), Feb '97 (USA)

Mario Kart: Super Circuit (GBA) - July 2001

Mario Kart: Double Dash (GCN) - November 2003

Mario Kart DS - November 2005

Mario Kart Wii - April 2008

Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - December 2011

Mario Kart 8 (Wii U) - May 2014

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Switch) - April 2017

Mario Kart Tour (iOS/Android) - September 2019

Mario Kart Next (Switch 2?) - 2024? 

Also holy shit 2024 will be 10 years since Mario Kart 8 released ... it's beyond time for a new game peoples. 

Thanks for the clarity!

I’ve only been following Mario Kart since the Wii version and I always temper it being around May. April wasn’t too far off (not counting handhelds, of course). 

I think my point still stands, though, regarding how far away from holiday they’ve been launching. 

And yes, 10 years is an eternity. Hopefully what we see next blows our minds. We can only hope. 

Why does everybody seems to forget about this one:

Tbh guys, all sales data and historical data aside, I have a strong feeling the Switch will become the greatest selling console ever just based on my intuition and what I'm seeing around me in my life when it comes to interest in the Switch.

I'm seeing people who'd I never picture to ever purchase a game console now buying Switches. To be honest I've never seen a system with such must-have appeal like the Switch is getting right now. I feel like the Switch is getting a similiar must-have appeal like a smartphone would have, where the Switch is looked at as a device that everyone should have for a party or get-togethers to have fun local multiplayer experiences you can't get anywhere else, or to even play amazing single player Nintendo games anywhere they'd like.

I don't think even Playstation has ever reached this level of appeal, for one thing is that I'm seeing a surprising amount of Switch only owners who are more interested in playing more of Nintendo's unique and simple pick up and play games like Mario Kart,Mario Party, Animal Crossing,ect that Playstation just can't offer. Also, although Playstation has always sold great, people could also go to Xbox or PC to play very similiar games so many people may not see the need for a PS. Can't say the same for the Switch which has no other competitors that could take away its appeal.

While other Nintendo systems had great Nintendo's games as well, they just never struck the same chord as I'm seeing with the Switch right now. Even the successful Wii never had the Switch's appeal. Although Nintendo games still sold well on the Wii, they were no where near what we're seeing with the Switch right now and many people primarily purchased a Wii for Wii Sports and didn't really get to experience the other Nintendo games that makes Nintendo so appealing, so a good amount of people would disregard the Wii as being the system as primarily being the "Wii Sports" system and not realize the other Nintendo games they were missing out on, making the Wii sell less and look less appealing.

That hasn't happened with the Switch clearly, Nintendo games sales are stronger than ever and now many new fans are starting to finally realize how diverse and awesome Nintendo's library is which is enhancing the appeal more than ever for the Switch, and word-of-mouth for these games is stronger than ever before.

Also, I feel like the popularity of the Wii quickly diminished once Sony & Microsoft released their own answers to the Wii with the Move & Kinect, pretty much removing the main unique feature the Wii had going for in the first place. That isn't happening with the Switch.

Even in 2023 I'm still seeing people buy the Switch and the price hasn't been deteering sales much either cleary, people believe the price is fine and worth it to get a system that is so unique.

Now that we've got an honest-to-God, legit 2D Mario game coming this Fall, I feel much more confidant that the Switch can get there.
Not sure if it will, but it's chances to just got considerably better!

Yup, the glimpses that we got of this new game allow to have positive expectations. Issues of the New Super Mario Bros. games that have been addressed already:

1. Artstyle
2. Change of the same old star coin formula
3. More interesting power-ups

What we can't say yet due to lack of info:

1. Music (there's going to be a new style, but that doesn't automatically mean that it will be better as a whole)
2. World themes (the NSMB games kept using the same eight themes)
3. Bosses (again, the NSMB games kept using pretty much the same ones throughout the entire series)

If Nintendo does it all right, the combination with the favorable release date (late October) will result in more than 20m copies shipped by the end of 2023. And since this is the first original 2D Mario game for Switch, a notable hardware boost is a given, even moreso if Nintendo launches a themed Switch SKU alongside it. The current fiscal year target of 15m shouldn't be as much of a challenge as Furukawa thought; Tears of the Kingdom put already a good amount of work in with a strong fiscal Q1, Super Mario Bros. Wonder is probably going to push Q3 to a level that makes the 15m target only a formality to complete in Q4, unless it turns out that Nintendo phones in this new 2D Mario game and have it be mostly a reskin of the NSMB formula.

As for 2024 as a whole, this Nintendo Direct didn't change the outlook for the general expectation of a fall launch of Switch's successor. A remaster of Luigi's Mansion 2, an all-new Peach game and the pending release of Metroid Prime 4 is all that's on the schedule for now. That's a mix that can be interpreted as either a late stage in the lifecycle schedule or as the typical situation for Switch where we've been left in the dark on a regular basis.

Im still pretty confident they will surpass 160M , these 2 new Mario games will help a lot

I feel like without a pricecut 160m will still be out of reach. I think a price cut with some good money saving bundles would potentially help it over the line, maybe a nintendo selects range as well. I remember when I got a ps4 it had uncharted 4, drive club and last of us remastered included which was an insane bundle.

With all indications pointing towards a holiday 2024 release for Switch 2. Ngl I'm finding it more difficult to see it outselling the PS2, I think its gonna be really close, probably in the low 150M In sales but just a few million short of the DS/PS2.

I think this because I highly doubt the current Switch will ever get a price cut, the Switch will inevitably sell 140M units with 0 price cuts which is more than satisfactory enough in sales for Nintendo and is so high that the market at that point would already be so saturated to the point where a price cut wouldn't make enough of a difference in sales for Nintendo to potentially consider it and make more profit off of it, plus it doesn't help that manufacturing costs are still very expensive relative to a console in its 7th year.

I'm also thinking that the Switch 2 will have backwards compatibility with Switch 1, so if the Switch 1 never recieves a price cut, it'll likely be at a very similar price to the Switch 2 with the Switch 2 having the ability to play Switch 1 & 2 games which will lead to everyone of course getting a Switch 2 instead of a Switch 1 even if Switch 1 continues to get supported, and Switch 1 sales will fall off a cliff just like what happened to the DS after the 3DS was released.

3DS was able to sell well post Switch launch because it had its own unique library of games that you couldn't play on Switch and was over 3 times less expensive than the Switch, making it easy for people to pick up the system post Switch launch, I dont see that happening with the Switch if it never gets a price cut and if Switch 2 is backwards compatible, which I think will be the case.

If Nintendo price cut the Switch to the point where it was significantly less expensive than the Switch 2 and/or it had its own unique library of games that couldn't be played on Switch 2. There would be 0 doubt in my mind that it'll outsell the PS2. I don't think that's gonna happen tho, Nintendo doesn't seem to care about beating a milestone if there's no major financial incentive in doing so, the DS had a good chance to outsell the PS2 and definitely could've if Nintendo really tried, but Nintendo didn't seem to care and let the DS die.

In terms of my sales prediction, I'm expecting the Switch to be at 140M by March 2024, then sales sharply declining to only like 7M to be at 147M by March 2025, lifetime I'm expecting 152M sold at this point, just short of the other two.