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Forums - Sales - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

Ashadelo on 22 November 2025
PAOerfulone said:
eldanielfire said:

I see, that is fair enough. I don't get why people think the PS6 will be this massive hit. the fact is the more tech develops now the longer the development time for games and so fewer system sellers. I personally expect the PS6 to follow the PS5 and be the system for COD/Fortnite/FIFA/GTA online/etc annual games and like games types, just like the PS5 is with too few exclusives to really make it expode in the eyes of those who don't have one.

I genuinely don't get Sony's thinking wiht the PS6, it's only going exabercate the PS5 problems of decent sales but struggles to sell software. I can't see them doing a Nintendo and holding it back to ensure a good supple of software is ready for purchase. Even Nintendo is padding out it's software with Switch 1 upgrades, but I suspect it's going to have a stronger 2nd year of games than the Switch 1 did to maintain momentum.

Sony is going to run into the very same problem that Microsoft ran into this generation. Last gen, when Microsoft started releasing their first party games on PC in addition to Xbox - while it boosted their software sales, revenue, and good will towards PC gamers at the time, even Ray Charles could see the negative impact that would have on their hardware sales. And sure enough, like clockwork, that impact has come to collect on the Xbox Series as the sales for that system, after a strong first 1-2 years, has since CRATERED.

While it won't be to the same extent or severity as Microsoft w/ Xbox, Sony will run into the exact same brick wall with the PS6 now that they have started releasing their games on PC as well.

Right now on steam there is the "Playstation Publisher Sale" I had no idea Sony had so many games on Steam, just counted 24, God of War, Horizon, Spider Man, Ratchet and Clank, Sackboy, etc. Picked up God of War, but never knew steam already had so many Playstation games on it. Have a feeling Sony will start releasing their games faster and faster on steam without having to wait a year + and prolly eventually follow Microsoft footsteps in terms of releases and timing



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eldanielfire on 23 November 2025
PAOerfulone said:
TheRealSamusAran said:

One year ago I thought the same, but then the NS2 hit 10m in record time somehow, so I'm not so sure anymore.

I don't think Switch 2 is going to do it either; In fact, I think Switch 2 will end up selling less than Switch 1.

It's off to a record-breaking start, yes. But that 2020-2022 stretch for Switch 1 was otherworldly. It was selling at levels and rates we haven't seen since peak DS/Wii era. And yes, the pandemic played a substantial role in that as there was nothing to do during that period... except play video games.

And unless something like that happens again, I don't see how Switch 2 will be able to replicate that pace or even maintain its current one.

I much agree. The Switch 2 is selling fatser laegly due to Nintendo peparng the stock. The Switch 1 had the good fortune of the pandemic to relaly give it a uniquely sustained run. the Switch 2 almost certainly will not. Plus the greater price, the unlikeliness that software will be out as frequently and so on. Hence why I believe the Switch 1 is Nintendo's only chance, possibly ever, of overtaking the PS2s total sales.



XtremeBG on 28 November 2025

Nintendo Breaks Its Own Pricing Rules as Switch With Joy-Con Crashes to an All-Time Low for Black Friday

Maybe there will be some sale on the Switch 1 this holiday after all.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

Wman1996 on 28 November 2025
XtremeBG said:

Nintendo Breaks Its Own Pricing Rules as Switch With Joy-Con Crashes to an All-Time Low for Black Friday

Maybe there will be some sale on the Switch 1 this holiday after all.

One site, but it's a mega one like Amazon. Saving about $90 though to get a Switch OLED over Switch 2 is pretty pointless though.

If someone got a PS4 not on sale during Holiday 2020 for $100 cheaper than a PS5 Digital and $200 cheaper than a PS5 I don't get it either

Then again, some people don't know or don't care the difference between Switch and Switch 2 and will snatch up the cheaper Switch models over Switch 2. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

CourageTCD on 29 November 2025
XtremeBG said:

Nintendo Breaks Its Own Pricing Rules as Switch With Joy-Con Crashes to an All-Time Low for Black Friday

Maybe there will be some sale on the Switch 1 this holiday after all.

Is there something that I am missing? How is the Switch OLED at $360 an All-Time low if it used to cost $350 before the price increase in August?



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firebush03 on 08 December 2025

@Norion I’m recalling what you said about Rol maybe having left the site… I think you may be right. I have a strong hunch that there was a falling out between some of the top members of this site (Ryuu96, RolStoppable, Bandorr).



Norion on 09 December 2025
firebush03 said:

@Norion I’m recalling what you said about Rol maybe having left the site… I think you may be right. I have a strong hunch that there was a falling out between some of the top members of this site (Ryuu96, RolStoppable, Bandorr).

He has said at points that things aren't as interesting on here nowadays though he actually posted a lot in September so going from that to suddenly no longer posting at all is the strange part to me. I do think he'll return to post a final update in this thread at some point if nothing else since letting one of the biggest threads on here from the past few years just die without proper closure would be weird.



firebush03 on 09 December 2025
Norion said:
firebush03 said:

@Norion I’m recalling what you said about Rol maybe having left the site… I think you may be right. I have a strong hunch that there was a falling out between some of the top members of this site (Ryuu96, RolStoppable, Bandorr).

He has said at points that things aren't as interesting on here nowadays though he actually posted a lot in September so going from that to suddenly no longer posting at all is the strange part to me. I do think he'll return to post a final update in this thread at some point if nothing else since letting one of the biggest threads on here from the past few years just die without proper closure would be weird.

The main thing that’s tipped me off is a comment from the XBSXS “Will it hit 36mil?” thread. There was a user who really ripped into Ryuu. I reported him, and it seems the moderators didn’t view it as justifiable to take down. Now, I’m no moderator, so be it for me to say who should and shouldn’t be allowed on this site… but that user was quite aggressive. This combined with Ryuu’s (and other users— Rol was always nearby when Ryuu was present, from what I recall) sudden departure in September, I’m lead to believe there’s some bad blood behind the scenes.



Shtinamin_ on 11 December 2025
firebush03 said:
MadDogg said:

Here’s ChatGPT’s unbiased info/analysis on the 160 vs 155 numbers to support all the fighin’ and a feudin’.

my favourite comment on the 160 “it’s essentially corporate lore” lol  

have fun!

Is this sarcasm? ChatGPT being called “unbiased”? (And 8 people agree??) The prompt you feed ChatGPT will have a major influence on the output you get. For instance, I’m always having to word myself in as neutral of a tone as possible when asking ChatGPT anything; otherwise, it’ll latch onto where I’m leaning and cater to that. (E.g. “Can you give me a non-abelian group of order 4?” ChatGPT: “Sure, here’s an example: [it’s an abelian group of order 4].”)

If I need data-like information and I chat with ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, etc. I always tell it to “give me the scholarly facts, be honest, be real, be critical”

I’ve gotten harsh words that tear down what I my stance originally was and I appreciate them, as it helps me understand my stance’s weakness and outside perspectives.

Here’s to an interesting calendar year of gaming!

Merry Christmas!



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

The_Yoda on 12 December 2025
eldanielfire said:
PAOerfulone said:

If the Switch 1 is going to do it - It's not going to come thanks to the three major markets (North America, Europe, and Japan - Although I still think they have some room to sell in Europe.) It's going to be in the smaller markets in the Rest of the World where they have to get it done.

Ideally, with Nintendo opening more and more offices and operations in smaller countries and markets like Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, and many other countries along Southeast Asia, they'll more than likely keep Switch 1 around and producing it, albeit at a much smaller scale so that they have a great entry level system with a massive library already available to offer these markets.

And since the production of Switch 1 will be so low, they could even afford to sell it at a significantly cheaper price that's affordable for these markets - Hell, maybe they'd even be willing to sell at a loss. Because the production will be so low, that the losses wouldn't amount to much and would be absolutely dwarfed and immediately made back/covered by the hardware and software sales of Switch 2 in the three main regions of the world.

I think in that last quarterly report, Nintendo mentioned something about the Switch 1 being open to cheaper markets. But it's gonna have to get cheaper IMO to exploit those markets.

As for your last paragraph, sadly Nintendo never sells at a loss. Whcih is a shame, I genuinely don't think given the direction of tech markets and their increaisng costs and production time of games that they or anyone will ever get so close to topping the 160 million mark again, it's basically now or never for Nintendo to have the world's best selling console forever.

The statement "sadly Nintendo never sells at a loss" is not entirely accurate.  I believe it was the 32GB model of the WiiU that initially sold at a very slight loss.  If memory also serves though 1 game purchase with the system put them back to profitable.  I cannot remember if that had to be a first party game or not.  That said, while it does set precedent, I find PAO's idea unlikely.  It would be smart of them in my opinion but ... I share your skepticism. 

Edit: precedent not president  [SMH]

Last edited by The_Yoda - on 12 December 2025