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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

XtremeBG said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

Yesterday I had some fun with ChatGPT. I know it is what it is but I gave it all known facts about the situation and ChatGPT also thinks that it's very likely that the Switch will top the PS2 (with the usual caveats like if Nintendo is supporting it (long) enough and doing the right marketing etc. but it's interesting that ChatGPT also thinks that price cuts and/or bundles would be recommendable).

I asked it about the announcement of the Switch 2 and here is what it said:

Current Speculation

  • Timeline: As of 2024, many industry analysts and insiders speculate that a successor to the Switch could be announced in late 2024 or 2025, with a possible release in late 2025 or 2026. This timing aligns with the typical lifecycle of a console and Nintendo's historical practices.

More evidence AI is fucking stupid; a release in 2025 or 2026 is in no way typical of a console lifecycle or Nintendo's historical practises.



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Yeah 2025 would be 8 years, which is NOT typical for Nintendo. The only time Nintendo had a longer generation was with the Game Boy. It released in 1989, the Game Boy Color in 1998, which is 9 years if you think the GBC was the next-gen handheld for Nintendo. If you consider the 2 as 1 generation then we are talking 2001 for the Game Boy Advance. 



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curl-6 said:
XtremeBG said:

I asked it about the announcement of the Switch 2 and here is what it said:

Current Speculation

  • Timeline: As of 2024, many industry analysts and insiders speculate that a successor to the Switch could be announced in late 2024 or 2025, with a possible release in late 2025 or 2026. This timing aligns with the typical lifecycle of a console and Nintendo's historical practices.

More evidence AI is fucking stupid; a release in 2025 or 2026 is in no way typical of a console lifecycle or Nintendo's historical practises.

I think the only thing that these AI programs do that makes them seem credible is that they use proper grammar.  It really goes a long way to make an argument appear convincing, even if the underlying information is obviously false.  



I tested some AI for fun recently with questions about a certain bus line in my vicinity. Google’s AI was plain wrong, saying it would be in operation during the weekend when I know it doesn’t. Microsoft’s was right but incomplete, and ChatGPT was right and gave extra information about roadworks impacting the schedule.



LLM based A.I. is shit. It's scraped data from various unverified sources filtered through basic if/then if/else background commands all wrapped in a simple feedback chat script.

If it gets crap data in, it gives crap data back out. No means of testing or verifying the data before it gets chatted back to the user. And it's only going to get worse as they start sourcing from each other.



To the privileged, equality feels like oppression. 

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firebush03 said:
Tober said:

I do like the add the caveat that for Nintendo Switch, Nintendo does not count 'download only' titles. Not to be confused by digital sales of games that are also available as physical, those are counted.

Source Page 50: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

This is the November 8th 2023 report explaining the Switch life up until 31 June 2023 last year. The software numbers correspond what was reported at the time as software numbers for each Fiscal year., meaning up until FQ23.

Three times on this page it's explicitly mentioned that 'download only' titles are not included in these numbers. We have no idea how many those would be. The Switch is popular with indies that are typically download only titles. But again no clue how many.

I'm curious if Sony or Microsoft include "digital-only" software in these figures. It makes sense for Nintendo not to include them since they can be a bit decieving (I'm thinking about the $1 shovelware...the Switch eShop is in shambles with how much "Adult Content (iykyk)" and "AI Generated" games are pumped onto the store). In the instance that neither Sony nor Microsoft include these figures, then there's truthfully no "caveat" here. If they do choose to include these figrues, however, then their software figures are greatly inflated.

I don't know if Sony and/or Microsoft does. I never saw a statement about it from either company. I did from Nintendo, therefore my addition.



So according to the AI Chat GPT the Switch has sold worldwide units for the month of July 2024 of about 1.1M.

How much units the Switch sold only for the month of July 2024 ?

ChatGPT said:
For the month of July 2024, the Nintendo Switch sold approximately 1.1 million units worldwide. This monthly figure represents a typical decline as the console's lifecycle progresses and sales stabilize after peak periods.

Let's see if this is gonna come true.

Edit: after asking it second time it said this:

In July 2024, the Nintendo Switch sold 1.06 million units worldwide. This figure reflects the console's continued strong performance, even as it nears the end of its lifecycle.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 15 August 2024

My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Polls: When will the Switch: Outsell the DS? / Outsell the PS2? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX

King Switch will be 150-152. million by end of December , then 155 million by March 2025

…., And 160 million by fall 2025 !!! :D

162 million at the end of Christmas
170 million is their final sales !



The thing about ChatGPT is that it wants to be your friend. For example, if Iwould phrase a question like that:

"I'm a huge PlayStation fan and I start to get nervous that the Switch could surpass the PS2 in lifetime sales. I hope this will not happen. What's your opinion?"

In that case, ChatGPT will try to help you and comes we arguments why PS2 has a good chance to stay on top.

The same is true vice versa if you phrase your question as a Nintendo supporter. However, if you ask the question very neutral and feed it with all the possible real data, ChatGPT also acts neutral and comes out with a very reasonable conclusion incl. pros and cons. But key is data, you need to feed it with as much valid and up-to-date data as possible.



Fight-the-Streets said:

The thing about ChatGPT is that it wants to be your friend.

The phrasing I like the most is: ChatGPT is very eager to please.

But yeah, this is exactly right, GPT tries more to tell you what you want to hear.

But asking about the sales is pointless anyways, as there is not much reliable data ChatGPT can it base on. So it is guesswork like any forumgoer.



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