Yeah there was a lot of downplaying of the Switch back in the early years, and while some of it was undoubtedly due to us coming off several years of Nintendo struggling with the Wii U, there was also definitely an element of console warz to it as well. Plus I feel like after the Wii U disaster some folks got their hopes up that Nintendo would finally go third party, and the Switch's success threatened that dream.

Considering inflation, the $99 price tag of the PS2 in 2009 would be equivalent to $145 in today's dollars. This suggests that a Switch Lite for $150 isn't a bad deal.

Another point that isn't often mentioned is that Nintendo is now focusing on a single console, no longer needing to support both a handheld and a home console. People wanting to enter the Nintendo ecosystem no longer have to choose between two difficult options as they did before.

This means that predicting Switch sales trends will always be challenging, as nothing like this has happened with Nintendo before.

There was this guy on here once a very long time ago, who made a whole, serious, essay about how the Wii (and WiiU even if I recall correctly) was going to sell 200M units. Lucas-something or whatever was his name. Good times.

While my worst-case estimate is 156 million, it can pass 170 million:

* Switch 2 release could be late for several reasons (production issues, games not ready etc.) - fall 2025 for instance
* Switch 2 could be very supply constrained the first Christmas quarter, many parents would buy Switch 1 instead
* If it is as powerfull as some reports say, it could be $400 or even $500 due to inflation while you get Switch 1 models for $150-200

Lol. There was a brief period where it looked like the wii could do ps2 numbers at the least. Switch is different though, if anything has ever had a chance it's the Switch as long as the new hardware is an iteratio, mid gen upgrade and not a generation jump. 

John Lucas was his name and he predicted I think 260m for the Wii and then the WiiU as he thought sales will turn around. Man, I miss him, good old days on here. I wonder why he never came back now as Nintendo is triumphing. I have a feeling he doesn't like the hybrid concept of the Switch as he always predicted how the handheld business is Nintendo's main business and they will always make sure that it stives first before they give full attention to their secondary business which is the home console business.

Ah yes. John Lucas, you're right, thanks. Maybe he just doesn't keep track of things anymore, who knows. Would be funny though if he did come back even if just for a day.

After how successful Wii was until mid to late 2010 or so, PS2 numbers really weren't a bold prediction for several of its years.

But PS2 benefitted from the early failings of PS3. Wii was drying up before Wii U launched and people were so done with Nintendo home consoles at the time that they didn't even bother to get a Wii instead of a Wii U. At least not to a notable degree. 

Predicting Wii U to sell 200 million when the Wii was drying up and the Wii U was confusing even before it launched is a pure fairy tale. Though of course, Lucas or whatever his name of course had every right to predict that even if it was looney. Some Nintendo executives were confident Wii U would sell over 100 million. 

200 million for Switch is very unlikely unless Switch 2 is unappealing and Switch ends up really cheap. And even then, I doubt Nintendo would manufacture enough of them to hit over 175 million - 180 million anyway. 

Apparently I missed about one thousand and fifty comments, but thought it notable that Switch is closing in on 50 million sold through in North America.

https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2024/jul/06/nintendo-hiding-forecast-switch-successor/