The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Wman1996]

LegitHyperbole said:

S.Peelman said:

There was this guy on here once a very long time ago, who made a whole, serious, essay about how the Wii (and WiiU even if I recall correctly) was going to sell 200M units. Lucas-something or whatever was his name. Good times.

Lol. There was a brief period where it looked like the wii could do ps2 numbers at the least. Switch is different though, if anything has ever had a chance it's the Switch as long as the new hardware is an iteratio, mid gen upgrade and not a generation jump. 

After how successful Wii was until mid to late 2010 or so, PS2 numbers really weren't a bold prediction for several of its years.

But PS2 benefitted from the early failings of PS3. Wii was drying up before Wii U launched and people were so done with Nintendo home consoles at the time that they didn't even bother to get a Wii instead of a Wii U. At least not to a notable degree. 

Predicting Wii U to sell 200 million when the Wii was drying up and the Wii U was confusing even before it launched is a pure fairy tale. Though of course, Lucas or whatever his name of course had every right to predict that even if it was looney. Some Nintendo executives were confident Wii U would sell over 100 million. 

200 million for Switch is very unlikely unless Switch 2 is unappealing and Switch ends up really cheap. And even then, I doubt Nintendo would manufacture enough of them to hit over 175 million - 180 million anyway.