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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

pavel1995 said:

With the release of mario party jamboree and pokemon z a we've got atleast 2 games that could sell over 10 million copies it definitely feels like nintendo has system sellers still lined up

Super Mario Party has sold 20.66 million and Mario Party Superstars has sold 12.89 million. And those sales obviously aren't completely over yet.

Jamboree could be a middling to poor game in quality and it will still probably sell at least 5 million. So yeah, 10 million is likely. 

Zelda might not hit 10 million (thinking 6-8 million on my initial impressions today), but Pokemon Z A will, and Jamboree probably will. 

It's absolutely wild that almost every Nintendo-published Switch game hits at least 1 million copies, with a lot of 10 million sellers. 

Even the Wii and DS didn't have so many million and 10 million sellers. 

Switch seems to have a more core audience to balance out the casuals it attracts and even the casuals seem to buy more games than on Wii and DS.

Switch has continued to blow me away and the future is so up in the air with Switch 2 neither unveiled nor launched that I can't call people who say Switch could hit 170 million loopy. 

Switch 2 could always stumble or Switch could get cheaper and pushed by Nintendo (like PS2 with the PS3's early days) that something like that could happen. 



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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King Switch is reaching 170 million

I’m sure Nintendo has a secret game for this holidays , they will reveal it in September



I have some personal predictions for Total Software (at the end of the Switch's shelf life) and how much Hardware it can sell (I'm considering around 2 weeks being the time that can be considered as selling hardware).

GameRelease DateTotal Software SalesHardware sales from Game
Luigi's Mansion 2 HDJune 27, 2024~8M (High balling)~0.24M (Jun 24-Jul 7)
Nintendo World Championship: NES EditionJuly 18, 2024~5M (Low balling)~0.35M (Jul 15-28)
Legend of Zelda: Echoes of WisdomSeptember 26, 2024~15M~0.52M (Sept 23-Oct 6)
Super Mario Party JamboreeOctober 17, 2024~13M~0.38M (Oct 14-27)
Mario & Luigi: BrothershipNovember 7, 2024~9M (High balling)~0.51M (Nov 4-17)
Donkey Kong Country Returns HDJan 2025 (Probably the 23rd)~11M (High balling)~0.27M (Jan 20-Feb 2)
Pokémon Legends: Z-A2025 (Probably Feb 20)~13M~0.46M (Feb 24-Mar 9)
Metroid Prime 4: Beyond2025 (Probably Mar 21)~7M (Low balling)~0.50M (Mar 17-30)
8 games6 confirmed dates. 2 Unknowns~81M3.23M (16 weeks out of 47 weeks until Mar 31, 2025)

If they can sell the predicted 3.23M then they will need to sell 9.64M more units over 31 weeks (averaging at 0.74M per week) in order to meet their 13.5M FY goal. Obviously they won't be able to sell 0.74M per week, but the Holiday season should see a huge boost in sales to ensure that their 13.5M becomes a reality.

This is a rather stacked second half of the year, and a stacked start to 2025. Considering that we now have two confirmed 2025 games they can either be early 2025, or be cross-gen releases with the Switch and the Successor. Personally, I don't think they'll be dedicated cross-gen because the Successor will release with a bigger franchise, like Mario 3D soon followed by Mario Kart. They'll most likely release Legends Z-A and MP4 on Switch and have a later release onto the Successor (or not at all since the Successor will be backwards compatible).

What a wonderful Nintendo Direct we had. The vision of the Switch is more complete for its swan-song year.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

I have some personal predictions for Total Software (at the end of the Switch's shelf life) and how much Hardware it can sell (I'm considering around 2 weeks being the time that can be considered as selling hardware).

GameRelease DateTotal Software SalesHardware sales from Game
Luigi's Mansion 2 HDJune 27, 2024~8M (High balling)~0.24M (Jun 24-Jul 7)
Nintendo World Championship: NES EditionJuly 18, 2024~5M (Low balling)~0.35M (Jul 15-28)
Legend of Zelda: Echoes of WisdomSeptember 26, 2024~15M~0.52M (Sept 23-Oct 6)
Super Mario Party JamboreeOctober 17, 2024~13M~0.38M (Oct 14-27)
Mario & Luigi: BrothershipNovember 7, 2024~9M (High balling)~0.51M (Nov 4-17)
Donkey Kong Country Returns HDJan 2025 (Probably the 23rd)~11M (High balling)~0.27M (Jan 20-Feb 2)
Pokémon Legends: Z-A2025 (Probably Feb 20)~13M~0.46M (Feb 24-Mar 9)
Metroid Prime 4: Beyond2025 (Probably Mar 21)~7M (Low balling)~0.50M (Mar 17-30)
8 games6 confirmed dates. 2 Unknowns~81M3.23M (16 weeks out of 47 weeks until Mar 31, 2025)

If they can sell the predicted 3.23M then they will need to sell 9.64M more units over 31 weeks (averaging at 0.74M per week) in order to meet their 13.5M FY goal. Obviously they won't be able to sell 0.74M per week, but the Holiday season should see a huge boost in sales to ensure that their 13.5M becomes a reality.

This is a rather stacked second half of the year, and a stacked start to 2025. Considering that we now have two confirmed 2025 games they can either be early 2025, or be cross-gen releases with the Switch and the Successor. Personally, I don't think they'll be dedicated cross-gen because the Successor will release with a bigger franchise, like Mario 3D soon followed by Mario Kart. They'll most likely release Legends Z-A and MP4 on Switch and have a later release onto the Successor (or not at all since the Successor will be backwards compatible).

What a wonderful Nintendo Direct we had. The vision of the Switch is more complete for its swan-song year.

Sorry but those are some terrible predictions



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Shtinamin_ said:

I have some personal predictions for Total Software (at the end of the Switch's shelf life) and how much Hardware it can sell (I'm considering around 2 weeks being the time that can be considered as selling hardware).

GameRelease DateTotal Software SalesHardware sales from Game
Luigi's Mansion 2 HDJune 27, 2024~8M (High balling)~0.24M (Jun 24-Jul 7)
Nintendo World Championship: NES EditionJuly 18, 2024~5M (Low balling)~0.35M (Jul 15-28)
Legend of Zelda: Echoes of WisdomSeptember 26, 2024~15M~0.52M (Sept 23-Oct 6)
Super Mario Party JamboreeOctober 17, 2024~13M~0.38M (Oct 14-27)
Mario & Luigi: BrothershipNovember 7, 2024~9M (High balling)~0.51M (Nov 4-17)
Donkey Kong Country Returns HDJan 2025 (Probably the 23rd)~11M (High balling)~0.27M (Jan 20-Feb 2)
Pokémon Legends: Z-A2025 (Probably Feb 20)~13M~0.46M (Feb 24-Mar 9)
Metroid Prime 4: Beyond2025 (Probably Mar 21)~7M (Low balling)~0.50M (Mar 17-30)
8 games6 confirmed dates. 2 Unknowns~81M3.23M (16 weeks out of 47 weeks until Mar 31, 2025)

If they can sell the predicted 3.23M then they will need to sell 9.64M more units over 31 weeks (averaging at 0.74M per week) in order to meet their 13.5M FY goal. Obviously they won't be able to sell 0.74M per week, but the Holiday season should see a huge boost in sales to ensure that their 13.5M becomes a reality.

This is a rather stacked second half of the year, and a stacked start to 2025. Considering that we now have two confirmed 2025 games they can either be early 2025, or be cross-gen releases with the Switch and the Successor. Personally, I don't think they'll be dedicated cross-gen because the Successor will release with a bigger franchise, like Mario 3D soon followed by Mario Kart. They'll most likely release Legends Z-A and MP4 on Switch and have a later release onto the Successor (or not at all since the Successor will be backwards compatible).

What a wonderful Nintendo Direct we had. The vision of the Switch is more complete for its swan-song year.

Sorry but those are some terrible predictions

No, just believe in his wild predictions. He might be Tbone's successor for all we know ! /s

Honestly, yeah a lot of these predictions really do go wild even for the low balling ones. Wouldn't dislike if some of them really happened but we gotta keep in mind that we are approaching the final active years of the system. Not every piece of software will come out flying like it might have did a few years back.

Man ... As much as I would like to see the next Mario & Luigi reach that 9M mark. The series has never done more than 3.5M before. Equalling BiS would already be a massive achievement for a series return.



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Mar1217 said:
zorg1000 said:

Sorry but those are some terrible predictions

No, just believe in his wild predictions. He might be Tbone's successor for all we know ! /s

Honestly, yeah a lot of these predictions really do go wild even for the low balling ones. Wouldn't dislike if some of them really happened but we gotta keep in mind that we are approaching the final active years of the system. Not every piece of software will come out flying like it might have did a few years back.

Man ... As much as I would like to see the next Mario & Luigi reach that 9M mark. The series has never done more than 3.5M before. Equalling BiS would already be a massive achievement for a series return.

Or DKC Returns doing 11m when Tropical Freeze did 4.62m as of the end of 2022.

Or Echoes of Wisdom doing 15m when Link’s Awakening did 6.46m as of the end of 2022.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Mar1217 said:

No, just believe in his wild predictions. He might be Tbone's successor for all we know ! /s

Honestly, yeah a lot of these predictions really do go wild even for the low balling ones. Wouldn't dislike if some of them really happened but we gotta keep in mind that we are approaching the final active years of the system. Not every piece of software will come out flying like it might have did a few years back.

Man ... As much as I would like to see the next Mario & Luigi reach that 9M mark. The series has never done more than 3.5M before. Equalling BiS would already be a massive achievement for a series return.

Or DKC Returns doing 11m when Tropical Freeze did 4.62m as of the end of 2022.

Or Echoes of Wisdom doing 15m when Link’s Awakening did 6.46m as of the end of 2022.

Tropical Freeze was one of the reasons DK 2D lost fan base. And DKC Returns was very hype. Much nostalgia.

EW is a new game not a remake that didnt sell originally well. And is the first time playing as Zelda, many females will want to play for the first time.

But yes there are high ballers that do seem poor in judgement, either way I'd like to see your guestimates. :)



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

There was new Zelda announced for Switch ? Is this full successor to the TOTK ?
This will be interesting to watch, what will be the boost for the consoles in sales.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

XtremeBG said:

There was new Zelda announced for Switch ? Is this full successor to the TOTK ?
This will be interesting to watch, what will be the boost for the consoles in sales.

It's a new Zelda game, yes but more akin to Links awakening. In style at least. Kind of hard to explain unless you have seen it. Am pretty confident in saying it won't quite have the sales potential of TOTK.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Is 150 millions possible until December 31st ?