I have some personal predictions for Total Software (at the end of the Switch's shelf life) and how much Hardware it can sell (I'm considering around 2 weeks being the time that can be considered as selling hardware).
| Game | Release Date | Total Software Sales | Hardware sales from Game |
| Luigi's Mansion 2 HD | June 27, 2024 | ~8M (High balling) | ~0.24M (Jun 24-Jul 7) |
| Nintendo World Championship: NES Edition | July 18, 2024 | ~5M (Low balling) | ~0.35M (Jul 15-28) |
| Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom | September 26, 2024 | ~15M | ~0.52M (Sept 23-Oct 6) |
| Super Mario Party Jamboree | October 17, 2024 | ~13M | ~0.38M (Oct 14-27) |
| Mario & Luigi: Brothership | November 7, 2024 | ~9M (High balling) | ~0.51M (Nov 4-17) |
| Donkey Kong Country Returns HD | Jan 2025 (Probably the 23rd) | ~11M (High balling) | ~0.27M (Jan 20-Feb 2) |
| Pokémon Legends: Z-A | 2025 (Probably Feb 20) | ~13M | ~0.46M (Feb 24-Mar 9) |
| Metroid Prime 4: Beyond | 2025 (Probably Mar 21) | ~7M (Low balling) | ~0.50M (Mar 17-30) |
| 8 games | 6 confirmed dates. 2 Unknowns | ~81M | 3.23M (16 weeks out of 47 weeks until Mar 31, 2025) |
If they can sell the predicted 3.23M then they will need to sell 9.64M more units over 31 weeks (averaging at 0.74M per week) in order to meet their 13.5M FY goal. Obviously they won't be able to sell 0.74M per week, but the Holiday season should see a huge boost in sales to ensure that their 13.5M becomes a reality.
This is a rather stacked second half of the year, and a stacked start to 2025. Considering that we now have two confirmed 2025 games they can either be early 2025, or be cross-gen releases with the Switch and the Successor. Personally, I don't think they'll be dedicated cross-gen because the Successor will release with a bigger franchise, like Mario 3D soon followed by Mario Kart. They'll most likely release Legends Z-A and MP4 on Switch and have a later release onto the Successor (or not at all since the Successor will be backwards compatible).
What a wonderful Nintendo Direct we had. The vision of the Switch is more complete for its swan-song year.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)
PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)
Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)
"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.
