Where’d you hear this?

With the latest numbers.. pretty sure this isn't possible, right? My best guess is Nintendo wants to focus on Switch 2 at this point. They'll have to have some great new releases when GTA6 goes into affect.

If I was Nintendo I would just keep manufacturing the systems for another 5-6 years. Who says you have to stop manufacturing a system at a certain cut off year? Personally I'd have no problem if they kept making 3DS systems too.

The concern in the past always was that "well you have to retire the system because the store can't possibly store/stock shelf space for games of a old system", but that isn't the case anymore with digital libraries. 

If you can walk into any Footlocker in the world basically and buy a pair of Air Jordan 1s (a shoe that first released in 1984 ... over 40 years ago now) like right now, like what's the big deal with a game console that's 10 years old. 

We will know in early May on the new FY forecast release. 

Japan is carrying it a lot (and well importing too), it also had slight sales increase in the USA last month. 

75k sales in Jan, 86k February (with stock issues in the beginning, gradually solving them ) heading to another 85k sales month, 240k total quarter sales,hence at least 300k shipments. 

Nintendo expects 750k shipments globally for the final quarter of the ongoing fiscal year, something tells me they will exceed it. 

Nintendo Switch is probably now near 156.3m shipped... 

If Nintendo exactly hits its 4 million forecast for the current fiscal year for the Switch 1 it will be at 156.62 million shipped at the end of March. At that point 3.38 million is what is needed to reach 160 million. The forecast for the next fiscal year will give us a good idea if it has a shot of reaching 160 million. If we see 1 million it is basically over. If we see 2 million than there is still a chance.

50% drop per year would be 2 million for a total of 158.62 million in March 2027, then 1 million would be 159.62 million in March 2028, and then 500,000 would be 160.12 million in March 2029.

If the drop is 60% per year we are talking 1.6 million for a total of 158.22 in March 2027, then 0.64 million for a total of 158.86 in March 2028, and then 256,000 for a total of 159.116 in March 2029.

You mean 156.12M right ? They were 152.12M as of March 31st 2025. They originally forecasted 4.5M which would lead them to 156.62M, however they adjusted down their forecast to 4M, and meeting it will result in 156.12M. So almost 4M left if they meet that 4M forecast..

Insightful

I feel they will exceed 4m target.

The restock of even original Nintendo switch in Japan is encouraging.

You ve made a little mistake though, Nintedo expects it to be at 156.12 155.37+750k.

However, who knows, your wrong number might be proved right eventually... 

Ah damn yes you are right. My bad.

With that a 50% drop would mean 158.12m as of March 2027, 159.12m as of March 2028, 159.62 in March 2029, then 250K for another 50% drop would be 159.87M in March 2030. Unless Nintendo keeps manufacturing them until like 2030 the drop in reality needs to be a bit less than 50% to reach 160 million.

45% drop would be 2.2M for 158.32 in March 2027, then 1.21M for a total of 159.53M in March 2028, then 0.665M for a total of 160.195M in March 2029.

I had forgotten that 4m is a revised forecast, fingers crossed for eventually attaining the original target.

I have substantiated why in previous posts. 

(Japan) 

My opinion is that the relatively strong performance in Japan for Switch 1 lately is on borrowed time. But that is just my opinion.. we will find out soon enough when the next couple of weeks rolls out.