If Nintendo exactly hits its 4 million forecast for the current fiscal year for the Switch 1 it will be at 156.62 million shipped at the end of March. At that point 3.38 million is what is needed to reach 160 million. The forecast for the next fiscal year will give us a good idea if it has a shot of reaching 160 million. If we see 1 million it is basically over. If we see 2 million than there is still a chance.
50% drop per year would be 2 million for a total of 158.62 million in March 2027, then 1 million would be 159.62 million in March 2028, and then 500,000 would be 160.12 million in March 2029.
If the drop is 60% per year we are talking 1.6 million for a total of 158.22 in March 2027, then 0.64 million for a total of 158.86 in March 2028, and then 256,000 for a total of 159.116 in March 2029.
VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.
I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.
Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.
