The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch (EDIT: See mod note in first post for new rule).

[trunkswd]

XtremeBG said:

trunkswd said:

If Nintendo exactly hits its 4 million forecast for the current fiscal year for the Switch 1 it will be at 156.62 million shipped at the end of March. At that point 3.38 million is what is needed to reach 160 million. The forecast for the next fiscal year will give us a good idea if it has a shot of reaching 160 million. If we see 1 million it is basically over. If we see 2 million than there is still a chance.

50% drop per year would be 2 million for a total of 158.62 million in March 2027, then 1 million would be 159.62 million in March 2028, and then 500,000 would be 160.12 million in March 2029.

If the drop is 60% per year we are talking 1.6 million for a total of 158.22 in March 2027, then 0.64 million for a total of 158.86 in March 2028, and then 256,000 for a total of 159.116 in March 2029.

You mean 156.12M right ? They were 152.12M as of March 31st 2025. They originally forecasted 4.5M which would lead them to 156.62M, however they adjusted down their forecast to 4M, and meeting it will result in 156.12M. So almost 4M left if they meet that 4M forecast..

Ah damn yes you are right. My bad.

With that a 50% drop would mean 158.12m as of March 2027, 159.12m as of March 2028, 159.62 in March 2029, then 250K for another 50% drop would be 159.87M in March 2030. Unless Nintendo keeps manufacturing them until like 2030 the drop in reality needs to be a bit less than 50% to reach 160 million.

45% drop would be 2.2M for 158.32 in March 2027, then 1.21M for a total of 159.53M in March 2028, then 0.665M for a total of 160.195M in March 2029.