Switch has shipped 154.01M (910k for the quarter). What lifetime sales you expect for the system ?

The previous polls:

152.12M by 31/03/2025

143.42M by 30/06/2024

132.46M by 30/09/2023

114.33M by 30/09/2022

107.65M by 31/03/2022

Those are some wide ranges.

under 120m & over 170m are pipe dreams, & 150-170 is very optimistic at this point so you only really have 2 viable choices. Can't you have like 10 options in a poll? Why not make it 5m increments.

Anyhow, the new adjustments haven't altered my expectations much, I still think 140m give or take 5m is the expected range.

150-170 MI

I think the Switch will be at 105M at the end of 2021.
I think the successor will launch in 2024, March or holiday.
Here are hypothetical yearly sales:
2022 - 22M
Q1 - 4M
Q2 - 4M
Q3 - 4M
Q4 - 10M
2023 - 17M
Q1 - 3M
Q2 - 3M
Q3 - 3M
Q4 - 8M
2024 - 10M
Q1 - 2M
Q2 - 1.5M
Q3 - 1.5M
Q4 - 5M
2025 - 2-5M

156-159M

2025 sales depend on how Nintendo handles the system after it's successor has launched.
I don't think it'll go any higher than 160M.
I did think it was guaranteed, but not anymore.
The 2024 sales could also end up lower if Nintendo never makes a price cut, which would lead to it staying behind the DS.

But I still think it has a very good chance at reaching 150M.

I guess 5m increments might be a little too granular yes, certainly for the higher end of the scale. And yes some people vote with their hearts so having the 150m-170m option is fine (it would just take a concerted effort by Nintendo to push unit sales, something which they have never been that bothered with at this level)

And yes that's what I meant for the poll, I haven't made any threads so I dont know the system but if the site lets you put more than 5 why not use them when you are encompassing a sales range from 120m to 170m.

135-150m

My actual guess is somewhere around 140-145m. I think Nintendo has positioned Switch as a platform that will be around for much longer than their consoles generally are. 2024 is the absolute earliest we'll see a successor, and I honestly think it might not even come until 2025. Given how long it'll continue to be on the market, there's no way it'll be anything under like, 130m, especially at the current pace. (2022 should continue to be a really strong year for Switch sales between the OLED model still being relatively new, TONS of heavy hitters and probably more we don't know about, and a slight price cut being possible) Sales may start to really slow down in 2023 and onward, but I can't imagine it'll be to a point where it can't still hit at least 10m per year in 2023 and 2024. And more than likely it'll end up being higher than that anyway. (Not to mention some late sales in 2025 and maybe 26??)

@Kakadu18 Your prediction is roughly the same as mine (I'm under the assumption that a backwards compatible successor launches in Holiday 2024).

I predict 1 billion sales, lifetime.

My expectation went from 180 to 150 after the last E3.

I've been estimating about 170m for a while now. However, if I have to choose between under or over that amount, then I'll choose over. Switch still has a lot of life left in it. Even after Nintendo releases the successor system, Switch will keep selling. The 3DS kept selling decently even after the Switch released, because it was still supported even after the Switch released. Now if a disappointing system like the 3DS can keep selling, them you better believe that the Switch will keep selling.