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Forums - Sales - September 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

September 2025 Circana (NPD) covers the five-week period from August 3o to October 3 and will be released on October 22 around 6:00 am PT / 9:00 am ET / 2:00 pm UK.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

  1. [#1 selling console] XXX,000
  2. [#2 selling console] XXX,000
  3. [#3 selling console] XXX,000
  4. [#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for September 2025:

  1. NS2 - 277K
  2. PS5 - 190K
  3. XS - 84K
  4. NS - 61K

VGChartz US estimates for August 2026:

  1. NS2 - 300K
  2. PS5 - 170K
  3. XS - 58K
  4. NS - 29K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

  • NS2 - $50 price hike on September 1 ($450 to $500)
  • PS5 - Marvel's Wolverine
  • PS5+XS - GTA6 pre-orders

Upcoming release dates for Circana reports:

  • September (8.30-10.3) - Oct 22
  • October (10.4-10.31) - Nov 19
  • November (11.1-11.28) - Dec 17
  • December (11.29-1.2.27) - Jan 21, 2027


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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  1. NS2 - 300K
  2. PS5 - 260K
  3. XS - 70K
  4. NS - 35K


My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

NS2 - 260K
PS5 - 245K
XS - 65K
NS - 30K



NS2 290k
PS5 235k
XS 75k
NS 30k

I suspect that NS2 and PS5 are alot closer this month.
Xbox is an eternal mystery to me.
There is no reason to expect anything but lowering sales for Switch and Switch 2 takes hold. With games like Zelda coming in November, Switch 2 is the obvious choice for people wanting to invest in the eco system.... especially since it plays Switch 1 games.

Last edited by CosmicSex - 11 hours ago

Keep in mind that September is 5 weeks month instead of 4 like August. Even if we count all the weeks the same, it still has to be up across everything because of the 5th week. In reality it should be even more on the rise, for the PS5 and Series, because of GTA.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / JP 2026 / 2026 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 2022 / 2021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

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XtremeBG said:

Keep in mind that September is 5 weeks month instead of 4 like August. Even if we count all the weeks the same, it still has to be up across everything because of the 5th week. In reality it should be even more on the rise, for the PS5 and Series, because of GTA.

Thanks for the reminder.  I'm gonna edit my prediction.