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Forums - Sales - September 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

I was 50/50 on which one is coming on top, so no surprises (unless the gap is big, is it?) $50 Switch 2 price hike and GTA6 explain it. Still very impressive from PS5 given its age and price.

Wolverine had a lot of potential but I image its mixed reception and word of mouth will wreck its legs.



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They mention the revenue yoy change for ns1, but not the sales one also, damn.
-12%
It's must be a nuisance to estimate based on that. 
Ns oled price was raised by 50
OG Ns by 40 (though it's share of monthly Ns total sales must be very low).
Lite by 30
Trunks, do you have any data about Ns family sales separately, if so, could you provide them?

Last edited by tak13 - 3 days ago

With GTA 6 coming, the PS5 should have a big holiday this year. My prediction is that the PS5 will match the PS1's sales by the end of the year



XtremeBG said:
  1. NS2 - 300K
  2. PS5 - 260K
  3. XS - 70K
  4. NS - 35K

wow I was exactly on point with the PS5, less than 1k difference. Niceee. NS1 exactly on point too, and very close with the Series.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 3 days ago

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XtremeBG said:
XtremeBG said:
  1. NS2 - 300K
  2. PS5 - 260K
  3. XS - 70K
  4. NS - 35K

wow I was exactly on point with the PS5, less than 1k difference. Niceee. NS1 exactly on point too, and very close with the Series.

Maybe the most accurate prediction ever for ps.

Oddly enough you overblew NS!

Last edited by tak13 - 3 days ago

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tak13 said:
XtremeBG said:

wow I was exactly on point with the PS5, less than 1k difference. Niceee. NS1 exactly on point too, and very close with the Series.

Maybe the most accurate prediction ever for ps.

Oddly enough you overblew NS!

You mean NS2 right? NS1 was exactly 35k, because of 5 week month, which I had in mind.



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PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

No doubt, very impressive for PS5 to outsell Switch 2, even with a strong third party and first party lineup during September for PS5.

Curious to see what kind of month on month growth we could see for Switch 2 in October, is 500k+ possible with the Zelda edition and OoT hype?



XtremeBG said:
tak13 said:

Maybe the most accurate prediction ever for ps.

Oddly enough you overblew NS!

You mean NS2 right? NS1 was exactly 35k, because of 5 week month, which I had in mind.

Yeah, i didn't specify it because its apparent on the quoted post.

5 week month, but price increase.

You would still be way off, if it was a 4 weeks month.

I will explain my intention, it was shocking you to have the highest prediction about ns2, sometimes there is some wishful thinking  clouding our "predictions", i m not innocent in that, i predicted 42k, then lowered it 41k NS for instance, but deep inside i was anticipating 38k and behold eventually it was somewhat less,i almost got the NS2 though (mine is the lowest one). 

By a hair you would have a fantastic 4 prediction.

I'm so curious to see what you will predict for NS2 october.

Last edited by tak13 - 2 days ago

Sephiran said:

No doubt, very impressive for PS5 to outsell Switch 2, even with a strong third party and first party lineup during September for PS5.

Curious to see what kind of month on month growth we could see for Switch 2 in October, is 500k+ possible with the Zelda edition and OoT hype?

Exactly.

Oh, there is a zelda game on they way?

Just in time on the rescue!

500k hardware sales or 500k zelda oot copies?😵‍💫😵‍💫😵‍💫 



tak13 said:
XtremeBG said:

You mean NS2 right? NS1 was exactly 35k, because of 5 week month, which I had in mind.

Yeah, i didn't specify it because its apparent on the quoted post.

5 week month, but price increase.

You would still be way off if it was a 4 weeks month.

I will explain my intention, it was shocking you to have the highest prediction about ns2, sometimes there is some wishful thinking  clouding our "predictions", i m not innocent in that, i predicted 42k, then lowered it 41k NS for instance, but deep inside i was anticipating 38k and behold eventually somewhat less,i almost got the NS2 though, (mine is the lowest one) 

By a hair you would have a fantastic 4 prediction.

I m so curious to see what you will predict for NS2 october.

When I said 5 week month, I meant it for the NS1. That system didn't had price increase in September. NS2 yes, I overestimated it. And of course, I would be way off with a 4 week month, but if it was 4 week month I would said lower number.

My wishful thinking is for all systems to be successful, in order for the whole gaming industry to be successful. And I would want the NS2 to be a little bit higher than what it's actually is. Cuz the hype was so big in the beginning, the first sales were record breaking, and if it remained so, it could've reached new highs after the first and the second year. It still can, but it lost some steam (for record breaking sales), which lower the chances at least for the near future a little bit. 

Other than that, my predictions were and are always based on history and trends not bias or wishful thinking. I expected because of the 5 week month, the NS2 to be even with the 4 week one August, exactly because of the price increase. I expected smaller drop, combined with a little boost of going in the latter part of the year. It dropped more however.

For October, weekly sales after the first week of September in US stabilized somewhat, ending the month with weeks of 48k and 47k. I would say 50k weeks for October, therefore something around ~200k, however there should be boost in the last week because of the Zelda bundle, so 250k. (sadly it does not include the game). November should be way higher with the game releasing however.

Last edited by XtremeBG - 2 days ago

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Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

PS5 vs SW2 in 2026 / Biggest months, years and holidays / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2