January 2026 Circana (NPD) Thread + Predictions

trunkswd

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trunkswd on 01 February 2026

January 2025 Circana (NPD) covers the four-week period from January 4 to 31 and will be released on February 20.

Since Circana (NPD) leaks don't happen nearly as often as it used to and hardware revenue is something we do get, be sure to include revenue in your predictions.

Feel free to also predict what you think the top software games will be for the month.

Example prediction:

[Total Hardware Revenue]

[#1 selling console] XXX,000
[#2 selling console] XXX,000
[#3 selling console] XXX,000
[#4 selling console] XXX,000

VGChartz US estimates for January 2024:

PS5 - 243K
NS - 125K
XS - 124K

VGChartz US estimates for December 2025:

NS2 - 999K
PS5 - 966K
XS - 270K
NS - 232K

Possible impact on hardware sales:

PS5 - $399 / $499 Fortnite bundles
XSX|S - $599 Series X at Walmart / Amazon
Nex Playground, PC handhelds, etc.

Current schedule for Circana (NPD):

Jan (Jan 4 - Jan 31) - Feb 20
Feb (Feb 1 - Feb 28) - Mar 18
Mar (Mar 1 - Apr 4) - Apr 22
Apr (Apr 5 - May 2) - May 20

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube channel discussing gaming sales and news, as well as posting random gaming content. Follow me on Bluesky.

I post and adjust the VGChartz hardware estimates, with help from Machina.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Monthly Hardware Breakdown | Monthly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

CosmicSex

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CosmicSex on 02 February 2026

NS2: 250k
PS5: 200k
XSX: 45k
NS: 45k

I predict Xbox and Nintendo Switch to be virtually tied and for Switch 2 to outsell the PS5 by about 50k. There is a small chance that the PS5 wins dollar sales, but I think this will go to Switch 2 because you can still purchase PS5 for $399 meaning the average price per unit may be quite cheaper for the PS5.