Lay down your prediction.

Should be the Switch 1. It'll have a significantly bigger decline but is declining from such a larger point it should stay ahead. Even with a more modest decline than last year thanks to GTA 6 the Xbox Series would only do about 1.5m or so and a decline similar to the DS in 2012 for the Switch would give it 1.7m. Something to watch is if the two combined reach 3m since them failing to would mean at least one did notably worse than expected.

A news for Series total sales :

https://x.com/grok/status/2019281230286483847

"Xbox Series X/S sales total about 28.3 million as of Dec 2025. This matches the post's calculation: ~138M Gen 9 consoles minus 92.2M PS5 and 17.37M Switch 2."

Switch definitely. The Series X is dead outside of North America.

Xbox Series S&X, the switch 1 is older and becoming fast outdated now (although it's still a great console and will have games I'm sure from Nintendo) Also there's a lot of increased competition in the handheld gaming with Steam deck, Ally, Xbox Ally, Legion Go - Xbox will have the latest games even though sales are slow so it will be close until the end of the year where Xbox will do very well when the new controller releases (Elite series 3) and some big games. They will make a come-back by the end of this year is my prediction.

Grok and other LLM don't know shit, they get basic things dead wrong all the time, it's best not to rely on them for anything.

It's using the "138m Gen 9 consoles outstanding" estimate that take-two put out.

The problem is we don't know what exactly they are estimating here, people are taking away PS5/SW2 shipments to get an Xbox figure, but it's quite likely Take-Two would be estimating sell-through/install base as that's what matters more to them.

If it is 138m shipped that would equal about 28.4m Xbox's shipped.

If it is 138m sell-through that would equal around 33m Xbox's sold-through.

The latter seems far more likely in my opinion.

I'll say Switch 1. Switch 2 and Xbox and will probably go up in price again. Gamepass too, which is the only reason to own an Xbox.

If i remember correctly there was a large under tracking of Xbox One last Gen. How ironic would it would be to have the Series consoles over track by proportionate magnitude.

I'm not quite ready to give a thoughtful prediction yet.

It would be funny if the Switch 1 actually beat the Series S/X this year in sales..... so I voted that way.