I think 14 million or less. We are now in the 6th year where sales are gonna dip. Looking at the 4th and 5th years for PS4 (2017-2018) and PS5 (2024-2025) they sold similar and had a similar dip, so I'm gonna guess the 6th year will be a similar dip in sales. PS4 did 14 million in year 6 (2019). That's how I came to 14 million or less for PS5. Also, I think a lot of people are overestimating how much GTA 6 will impact PS5 sales this year.

In this post I predicted 14 million or less and gave my reason why. With this new price increase I think it's now gonna be 12 million or less.

With the state of tech and the economy, this is a very difficult question to answer. (Also, whether GTAVI actually releases this year.)

Up until the inevitable RAM price hikes start hitting PS5, I suspect Sony will continue to aggressively discount hardware so as to get consumers into as many consumers hands (once the price goes up, a chunk of consumers suddenly becomes outpriced; this is not good not only because less hardware revenue, but also less people entering the PlayStation ecosystem, less software sales through the PS Store, etc.). So, depending on when this will happen, then sales might be a bit inflated for the early part of this year. Overall figures could be as strong as 18mil (strong H1, solid H2 carried by GTAVI, but holiday bump is muffled by the discounts from early in the year), or as weak as 13mil if price hikes hit very soon.

Without GTAVI, I'd guesstimate around 13–15.5mil. With GTAVI, then 14–18mil.

17.1M will hardly be possible with such massive price hikes, but it is what it is, that's what I said and I'm not gonna change it now because shit happened.

Thats oddly specific.  Am I missing something?  Would love for you to be spot on that would be epic!