Switch was at 2.4m this time last year and sold another 1.6m for the remainder of the year. Switch is at 1.6m and you think it could sell another 1.6m for the rest of this year. Shouldn't you also estimate something similar to PS5? It's at 900k so it could probably sell 900k for the rest of this year LOL.  I think you are being very optimistic with switch and not so much with PS5

Wii Switch Sports and 2D Mario side by side in the top 10.

The Switch was unusually impacted by Tears of the Kingdom in Q2 last year, causing a trend breach. It is therefore in my opinion that the comparison with 2018 makes more sense.

According to VGChartz estimates and data (which is way more accurate in terms of weeks and months) Switch sold 3.95M last year. So Switch didn't pass 4M last year. The 1st week from last year was actually 2022 week.

I was looking at Shadowlink' table

Fun fact: Switch has never sold less than 22k in any week. 380+ weeks and not once below 22.1k.

Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-7-29-24-8-4-24-top-30/

1. [NSW] Powerful Pro Baseball 2024-2025 – 21,392 / 223,619
2. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 10,694 / 5,932,192
3. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 8,254 / 7,858,430
4. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD – 7,434 / 166,364
5. [NSW] Minecraft – 6,917 / 3,585,175
6. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports – 6,469 / 1,363,142
7. [NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder – 5,035 / 1,902,143
8. [NSW] Nintendo World Championships: NES Edition – 4,989 / 41,123
9. [NSW] One Piece Odyssey – 4,806 / 21,179
10. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 4,739 / 5,53,891
11. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Violet – 4,712 / 5,382,178
12. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru – 4,524 / 1,100,518
13. [PS4] Powerful Pro Baseball 2024-2025 – 4,446 / 61,865
14. [NSW] Splatoon 3 – 4,097 / 4,341,547
15. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door – 3,103 / 212,303
16. [NSW] Dokapon: Ikari no Tekken – 2,973 / NEW
17. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 – 2,933 / 1,014,183
18. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 2,883 / 1,306,603
19. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 2,724 / 3,602,835
20. [NSW] Mario Party Superstars – 2,455 / 1,474,505
21. [NSW] Hiiro no Kakera Tamayori-hime Kitan – 2,384 / NEW
22. [NSW] Pikmin 4 – 2,250 / 1,230,850
23. [NSW] Super Mario Party – 2,122 / 2,318,172
24. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival – 2,089 / 336,034
25. [NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – 2,058 / 1,133,087
26. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 2,038 / 2,314,144
27. [NSW] Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – 1,957 / 2,002,225
28. [NSW] Ace Combat 7 – 1,729 / 22,807
29. [NSW] Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 Special Price – 1,653 / 182,101
30. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey – 1,614 / 2,496,867

XBS 2024 weekly total: 77'853

XBS 2023 weekly total: 77'021

Japan is the only region where Xbox has an increase of sales compared to last year...

Considering the price increase that will not last long. Will still do better yoy than PS5, Switch will probably be close.

there is no PS5 games that sold over 1.6k physically in Japan. digital attach rate must be sky high.

great to see both Switch main line Zelda game selling over 2mil physically in Japan. 7 years ago i would have loved to have a single game over a million.