Maybe even more.

Of Sony's first 4 home consoles, only PS3 was below 100 million because of

-High price for the first years

-A sluggish stream of quality software at first.

-Stiff direct competition from Xbox and indirect competition from Nintendo

PS5 is on track to sell similarly to PS4, though I too think it will fall short of PS4's total.

Short of the console market falling off a cliff or mistakes similar to the PS3, there's little chance PS6 doesn't crack 100 million. 

PlayStation home consoles are more consistent than Xbox or Nintendo home consoles. 

I am pretty sure that if PS3 was slashed half the price in it's last years, just like PS2 or at least to 199$ (for the 500GB model, and 149$ for the 12GB), it would reach 100M, and because it would sell more units than what it did, Sony would left it on the market till 2020 and not 2016.

Thinking about this some more, but the PS5 is almost guaranteed to outsell the PS4, as long as the PS6 launches in 2028. Here are some conservative projections: 

24: 17M 
25: 15M
26: 13M
27: 10M
28: 8M

Even taking a million units off for each of these FY's puts the PS5 right around the PS4. I think I'm lowballing 2025 and 2026 by quite a bit too. Don't forget, the tail end of the PS4's lifecycle was severely impacted by COVID and production issues, or it would be sitting comfortably above 120M+.

That's why I am also on the same opinion. PS4 may had good start and peak years, however after 2019 it wasn't so good, and it's drops were as big as Wii.

I personally would project the calendar years going ahead (suggesting 2028 PS6 launch) like this:

2024 - 19-20M

2025 - 18-20M (normally it should be slight decline here, however because of GTA V and the first full year of PS5 Pro on the market, I expect a little boost and with that to reach the previous year numbers)

2026 - 15-17M

2027 - 12-14M

2028 - 10-12M

2029 to end at least 10M more.

So even going with the worst case scenario here we get to almost 140M. The 26 and 27 years, may gone even lower if Sony do the mistake that they did with the PS5 announcement - doing it 2 full years before release (which resulted in taking some of the sales of the PS4 in 2018, 2019, and even some amount of 2020 imo). So if they don't announce the PS5 until the very same year it will launch, the win over PS4 is sure imo.

I think your FY24 and FY29 projections are a bit high. But I agree with the rest. The only major factor would be Sony's flexibility on price cuts/promotions. It may be more on the production side this generation, but Sony's premium pricing strategy is also in effect for their hardware. 

Still, Sony does price cuts and promotions for a limited time. I wouldn't be surprised to see a minor but permanent price cut later this year. They also still have the PS5 Pro coming. That represented about 10% of the PS4's lifetime sales. 

Some of your declines seem pretty pessitimic, didn't the PS5 sell around 21 million this past year? Sony themselves are predicting 18 million, which is a 3 million decline. Yet alot of your predictions are predicting 2 million declines for several years. Think we need to dail it back, let's see if it can reach 130.

Why ? First my prediction are about the calendar years not the fiscal ones, as I already point out in my previous comment. Second, the last year was almost 22M for the calendar year. 19-20M is normal decline, and with sales as they are going now maybe the pace is about for 18-19M however I expect the PS5 Pro to launch in the end of the year which may boost them by around 1-2M and therefore 19-20M range for the calendar year. Third, my projection of 2029 is not only for the year after PS6 launch (in the example here is end of 2028) but also for the years after that. So I expect sales somewhat better than PS4 after PS5 launched, so 10M with the 2029 included and the 2030 and 2031 or whatever year is discontinued (something like PS3 or PSP sales after successor's launch). Also I expect at least 1 price cut somewhere down the line. So my numbers are with price cut included.

It sold almost 22M in 2023 calendar year. And again I am talking about calendar years here not FY ones, so the prediction of 18M is slightly moved here. So 22M to 19-20M range for 2024 (with possible Pro model coming out in the holidays) is pretty realistic. Some of the declines I explained in the previous post why I think so. But yes, at this point I can't throw exact projection or prediction yet, But I think it will be somewhere there - a tad better than PS4, when all is said and done. Maybe 130, maybe little more than that.

Just imagine where the system would be if they actually released consistent (quality) games and dropped the price. The fact the system has been the same or more for 4 years is astounding.

There are consistent quality releases on PS5