| XtremeBG said: That's why I am also on the same opinion. PS4 may had good start and peak years, however after 2019 it wasn't so good, and it's drops were as big as Wii. I personally would project the calendar years going ahead (suggesting 2028 PS6 launch) like this: 2024 - 19-20M 2025 - 18-20M (normally it should be slight decline here, however because of GTA V and the first full year of PS5 Pro on the market, I expect a little boost and with that to reach the previous year numbers) 2026 - 15-17M 2027 - 12-14M 2028 - 10-12M 2029 to end at least 10M more. So even going with the worst case scenario here we get to almost 140M. The 26 and 27 years, may gone even lower if Sony do the mistake that they did with the PS5 announcement - doing it 2 full years before release (which resulted in taking some of the sales of the PS4 in 2018, 2019, and even some amount of 2020 imo). So if they don't announce the PS5 until the very same year it will launch, the win over PS4 is sure imo. |
I think your FY24 and FY29 projections are a bit high. But I agree with the rest. The only major factor would be Sony's flexibility on price cuts/promotions. It may be more on the production side this generation, but Sony's premium pricing strategy is also in effect for their hardware.
Still, Sony does price cuts and promotions for a limited time. I wouldn't be surprised to see a minor but permanent price cut later this year. They also still have the PS5 Pro coming. That represented about 10% of the PS4's lifetime sales.
