Actual figures from Microsoft would be nice. And that is true we did undertrack the Xbox One by a good 6 or 7 million once it came out that it sold about 58 million lifetime. 

Historically, the US is roughly 50% of worldwide sales for Xbox consoles. For Xbox Series X|S we have it at 17.26 million in the US, while we have it at 33.88 million worldwide. That would put the US at 50.9% of worldwide sales. Our US estimates should be decently close thanks to Circana/NPD data.

I believe for the purposes of this discussion we should just take vgchartz figures as correct, otherwise there's nothing to base it on.

So if Xbox Series is at 33.88m at the end of October will they make it to 36m?

2026 sales will have to be devestatingly low, but after this year that might be exactly what happens.

Yeah I was definitely over confident in it making it to 40m though this level of collapse has truly been something else. I never thought they'd outright completely give up on trying to sell it while it was still in the middle of its life which was required for it to fall to reach 40m but that did in fact happen so here we are. If I go with the estimates here then I think it'll make it to 36m since it should be less than 1.5m away from that by the end of December and I expect it to sell around 1m next year so it should crawl there during 2027. GTA 6 should sell at least some small amount of Series S's if nothing else.

My expectations were low but holy shit...

This thread is truly made out of steely hope and rainbows.

Did the biggest fanboy on this forum tap out? I bet the site improved out of free bandwidth alone. My fucking god what a pest.

Yeah for the purposes of this thread, we're going by VGChartz numbers, so 33.88m as of the end of October.

Indeed what a difference 19 months makes.

Point 2 was correct.

I guess there is still a chance of a new XBox end next year, yet it would be DOA in the current market :/ Not that it will matter one bit for current gen XBox sales. Current gen XBox has been leaving stores already.

With a 33.88m estimate, no chance anymore it will make it to 36 million.

👍 All good. I’ll think on this… we should have a clearer picture on LTD after December figures release. Being that XBSXS saw virtually no discounts for November, it’ll look a lot more bleak with these November figures. So, December should really be the best indicator of where the system is headed.

I think it will reach 36M. As low it is selling it should do at least 500-600k more for November + December, therefore topping 34.5M when the year ends. From there this will mean a year of around 2.5M for 2025. Next year it will be obvious decline, but even at that 1M should be possible, and thanks to GTA 6, at least 1.5M should be on the cards as well. So, I can see 36M with by the end of next year. We don't know when there will be successor (if actually there will be one) but, in every possible scenario (unless maybe discontinuation sooner), I can see the Series making another 500K to a million more until discontinuation. So even 37M seems like possibility to me, right now, maybe 50/50, but 36M for sure. I will also post my chart here (which is until September). It's hard to not see the green line at least a little higher, to a 36-37M when it's all said and done. Even the Wii one after that 2011 holiday, moved another almost 3M. As low as Series is selling, at least 2M more from January 1st 2026 should be on the cards.