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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 81 63.78%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 24 18.90%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 22 17.32%
 
Total:127

Wikipedia just updated its numbers, moving PS2 to 160 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles



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Quodam_Diem said:

Wikipedia just updated its numbers, moving PS2 to 160 million.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_game_consoles

Yep, it says more than 160M. Which is odd. Edit: I listened to the podcast, he sounds very sure .. So guess we are waiting for possible answer from Shawn Layden then for an exact figure.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 29 March 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

trunkswd said:

Jim Ryan revealed the PS2 sold 160 million lifetime on the PlayStation Podcast.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/460475/jim-ryan-says-the-ps2-sold-160-million-units-lifetime/

I guess before the podcast Jim has read my post regarding blaming Sony for not revealing the final number and thought he has to come up with something.But obviously, he is rounding up the numbers. The PS2 certainly didn't sell flat out 160.00m. Anything from 157.50m to 159.99m you can conveniently round up to 160m.

Fact is the following: The highest mathematical theoretical possible is 161.9m (as unfolded on Resetra and here on VGChartz several times) but it is VERY unlikely that it actually sold more than 159.2m because in FY21 (ending March 31, 2022) the PS2 shipped 4.1m and production stopped in January 2023 - so it is VERY unlikely that in it's very last year of existence that it sold more than the year before (4.1m). Therefore, when the PS2 was at 155m (or for those who think it actually was at 155.1m), the absolute realistic maximum is 159.2m by end of life (March 31, 2023).



Fight-the-Streets said:
trunkswd said:

Jim Ryan revealed the PS2 sold 160 million lifetime on the PlayStation Podcast.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/460475/jim-ryan-says-the-ps2-sold-160-million-units-lifetime/

I guess before the podcast Jim has read my post regarding blaming Sony for not revealing the final number and thought he has to come up with something.But obviously, he is rounding up the numbers. The PS2 certainly didn't sell flat out 160.00m. Anything from 157.50m to 159.99m you can conveniently round up to 160m.

Fact is the following: The highest mathematical theoretical possible is 161.9m (as unfolded on Resetra and here on VGChartz several times) but it is VERY unlikely that it actually sold more than 159.2m because in FY21 (ending March 31, 2022) the PS2 shipped 4.1m and production stopped in January 2023 - so it is VERY unlikely that in it's very last year of existence that it sold more than the year before (4.1m). Therefore, when the PS2 was at 155m (or for those who think it actually was at 155.1m), the absolute realistic maximum is 159.2m by end of life (March 31, 2023).

Yeah after doing some thinking and looking over the math I decided to revert back our PS2 figure to 158.7M, which is the minimum based on official figures from Sony.

Here is the previously posted math from over a year ago:

Sony reported PS2 shipped 155.1M as of March 2012 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Sony reported PS3 shipped 63.9M as of March 2012 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Sony combined PS2 and PS3 together as Computer Entertainment System and PSP + PSV as Portable Entertainment System for FY 2012 (April 2012 to March 2013) https://web.archive.org/web/20130921081219/http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_hardware_e.html

PS2+PS3 shipped 16.5M for the 2012 FY https://web.archive.org/web/20131014055001/http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_ces_sale_e.html

Sony announced PS3 surpassed 80M on November 2 2013 https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/06/ps3-sells-over-80-million-units-with-4332-games-released

Sony reported PS3 shipped 1.1M + 2.0M in Q2 + Q3 2013 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Tally up 1.1M + 2.0M + 63.9M = 67M

PS3 cannot have passed 80M before November 2, 2013, meaning PS3's maximum shipment LTD as of September 2013 must be less than 80M.

79.9M - 67M = 12.9M as the absolute most PS3 could have shipped in FY 2012

16.5M - 12.9M = 3.6M left over for PS2

3.6M + 155.1M = 158.7M minimum.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 29 March 2024

VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

It's quite funny the fact that besides VGChartz, wikipedia also made an edit with the "more than 155" numbers again. Maybe I have never seen in my life, online information to change so fast.
"



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Quodam_Diem said:

It's quite funny the fact that besides VGChartz, wikipedia also made an edit with the "more than 155" numbers again. Maybe I have never seen in my life, online information to change so fast.
"

I want the numbers on VGChartz to be as accurate as possible given the available data. I hope we get clarification now that Jim Ryan made that 160 million comment. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:
Quodam_Diem said:

It's quite funny the fact that besides VGChartz, wikipedia also made an edit with the "more than 155" numbers again. Maybe I have never seen in my life, online information to change so fast.
"

I want the numbers on VGChartz to be as accurate as possible given the available data. I hope we get clarification now that Jim Ryan made that 160 million comment. 

I understand and I agree with you. Sorry if I sounded offensive or so. Didn't mean to be. I was referring to the whole thing.



Fight-the-Streets said:

I guess before the podcast Jim has read my post regarding blaming Sony for not revealing the final number and thought he has to come up with something.coolBut obviously, he is rounding up the numbers. The PS2 certainly didn't sell flat out 160.00m. Anything from 157.50m to 159.99m you can conveniently round up to 160m.

Fact is the following: The highest mathematical theoretical possible is 161.9m (as unfolded on Resetra and here on VGChartz several times) but it is VERY unlikely that it actually sold more than 159.2m because in FY21 (ending March 31, 2022) the PS2 shipped 4.1m and production stopped in January 2023 - so it is VERY unlikely that in it's very last year of existence that it sold more than the year before (4.1m). Therefore, when the PS2 was at 155m (or for those who think it actually was at 155.1m), the absolute realistic maximum is 159.2m by end of life (March 31, 2023).

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. My comment was the original that blamed SONY! laughinglaughing Jim must've read my comment, then your quote and answer, and got angry and give us an answer in the podcast.

The fact however that he is giving 160M instead of let's say 158M, for me it's a sign that PS2 passed the 159M mark, probably not the 160M one. (if it's really rounded up). Also given that PS2 had not a normal sales pace in general and had it's shipment/sales years (cuz at some point they changed to sold which only throw more in the mix) after the PS3, like 16.17, 16.22 (the year after sold more than the year before), 14.20, 13.70 (year after very close to the year prior) 7,90 and 7,30 (again the same thing) and 6.40 (note the little to no drop here 3 years in a row, and every 2 years before that) are leading me to believe that it's last year is very possible to be the same 4.1M sold, or even little bit more than that (why not?) for example 4.2 or 4.3M. Either way as you said even with 4.1M it gets to pass the 159M mark. Which as I said, by Jim's pointing of 160M (maybe rounded?) it's very much the most likely.

@trunkswd For the same reason I don't believe on the upper side of the calculation that is above 160M, cuz if it was true, he would say "over 160M". It was a general discussion, talking like a friend on friend. - 160M is the number, like it's not necessary to point out the exact to the last unit. Therefore, in my own opinion based on what we have here, I would bet the PS2 final number is anywhere between 159.2M and 160M. Out of which I updated and adjusted my 2 charts comparison including PS2, DS and Switch. (this is the most exact, adjusted and point to point one I've made since, I also looked at 150M sold in start of 2011 announcement to align, the 155M announce at march 2012, and 159M sold lifetime, which should be till the end of 2013, cuz the production was ended on January 2013, but as we all know, after every system stop production it's still selling it's last units for months to come. And yes, cuz of the added now full 2013 year of sales of PS2, now the PS2 line is even longer going ahead, and it's even more extreme climb of the mountain for the Switch. I explained here and in this comment (https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9507805) why I think 159M is the closest as possible number but for those having a problem with that, on the chart the 158.7 (like it was before) and 159M are basically the same. Anyway, based on the recent Jim Ryan comment, I also believe we will get a 100% confirmation very soon.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 29 March 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Quodam_Diem said:
trunkswd said:

I want the numbers on VGChartz to be as accurate as possible given the available data. I hope we get clarification now that Jim Ryan made that 160 million comment. 

I understand and I agree with you. Sorry if I sounded offensive or so. Didn't mean to be. I was referring to the whole thing.

No worries. It didn't come off as offensive. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

XtremeBG said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

I guess before the podcast Jim has read my post regarding blaming Sony for not revealing the final number and thought he has to come up with something.But obviously, he is rounding up the numbers. The PS2 certainly didn't sell flat out 160.00m. Anything from 157.50m to 159.99m you can conveniently round up to 160m.

Fact is the following: The highest mathematical theoretical possible is 161.9m (as unfolded on Resetra and here on VGChartz several times) but it is VERY unlikely that it actually sold more than 159.2m because in FY21 (ending March 31, 2022) the PS2 shipped 4.1m and production stopped in January 2023 - so it is VERY unlikely that in it's very last year of existence that it sold more than the year before (4.1m). Therefore, when the PS2 was at 155m (or for those who think it actually was at 155.1m), the absolute realistic maximum is 159.2m by end of life (March 31, 2023).

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. My comment was the original that blamed SONY! Jim must've read my comment, then your quote and answer, and got angry and give us an answer in the podcast.

The fact however that he is giving 160M instead of let's say 158M, for me it's a sign that PS2 passed the 159M mark, probably not the 160M one. (if it's really rounded up).

Also given that PS2 had anomaly in general, in it's sales, and had it's shipment/sales years (cuz at some point they changed to sold which only throw more in the mix) after the PS3, like 16.17, 16.22 (the year after sold more than the year before), 14.20, 13.70 (year after very close to the year prior) 7,90 and 7,30 (again the same thing) and 6.40 (note the little to no drop here 3 years in a row, and every 2 years before that) are leading me to believe that it's last year is very possible to be the same 4.1M sold, or even little bit more than that (why not?) for example 4.2 or 4.3M. Either way as you said even with 4.1M it gets to pass the 159M mark. Which as I said, by Jim's pointing of 160M (maybe rounded?) it's very much the most likely.

@trunkswd For the same reason I don't believe on the upper side of the calculation that is above 160M, cuz if it was true, he would say "over 160M". It was a general discussion, talking like a friend on friend. - 160M is the number, like it's not necessary to point out the exact to the last unit.

Therefore, in my own opinion based on what we have here, I would bet the PS2 final number is anywhere between 159.2M and 160M. Out of which I updated and adjusted my 2 charts comparison including PS2, DS and Switch. (this is the most exact, adjusted and point to point one I've made since, I also looked at 150M sold in start of 2011 announcement to align, the 155M announce at march 2012, and 159-160M sold lifetime, which should be till the end of 2013, cuz the production was ended on January 2013, but as we all know, after every system stop production it's still selling it's last units for months to come. And yes, cuz of the added now full 2013 year of sales of PS2, now the PS2 line is even more long going ahead, and it's even more extreme climb of the mountain for the Switch.

(If someone has a problem with the final 160M number, the line is basically the same when I put the 158.7M in the end (as it was before), so not a big deal, but I personally believe the range is really between 159M and 160M. Anyway, based on the recent Jim Ryan comment, I also believe we will get a 100% confirmation very soon.

You are probably right with it being over 159M. But we don't know 100% for sure, which is why we decided to lower it back down to 158.7M as that is the minimum it sold.

I do hope we get confirmation really soon on what the PS2 ended up selling lifetime. At least before the Switch hits 155M.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.