Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[XtremeBG]

Fight-the-Streets said:

I guess before the podcast Jim has read my post regarding blaming Sony for not revealing the final number and thought he has to come up with something.But obviously, he is rounding up the numbers. The PS2 certainly didn't sell flat out 160.00m. Anything from 157.50m to 159.99m you can conveniently round up to 160m.

Fact is the following: The highest mathematical theoretical possible is 161.9m (as unfolded on Resetra and here on VGChartz several times) but it is VERY unlikely that it actually sold more than 159.2m because in FY21 (ending March 31, 2022) the PS2 shipped 4.1m and production stopped in January 2023 - so it is VERY unlikely that in it's very last year of existence that it sold more than the year before (4.1m). Therefore, when the PS2 was at 155m (or for those who think it actually was at 155.1m), the absolute realistic maximum is 159.2m by end of life (March 31, 2023).

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. My comment was the original that blamed SONY! Jim must've read my comment, then your quote and answer, and got angry and give us an answer in the podcast.

The fact however that he is giving 160M instead of let's say 158M, for me it's a sign that PS2 passed the 159M mark, probably not the 160M one. (if it's really rounded up). Also given that PS2 had not a normal sales pace in general and had it's shipment/sales years (cuz at some point they changed to sold which only throw more in the mix) after the PS3, like 16.17, 16.22 (the year after sold more than the year before), 14.20, 13.70 (year after very close to the year prior) 7,90 and 7,30 (again the same thing) and 6.40 (note the little to no drop here 3 years in a row, and every 2 years before that) are leading me to believe that it's last year is very possible to be the same 4.1M sold, or even little bit more than that (why not?) for example 4.2 or 4.3M. Either way as you said even with 4.1M it gets to pass the 159M mark. Which as I said, by Jim's pointing of 160M (maybe rounded?) it's very much the most likely.

@trunkswd For the same reason I don't believe on the upper side of the calculation that is above 160M, cuz if it was true, he would say "over 160M". It was a general discussion, talking like a friend on friend. - 160M is the number, like it's not necessary to point out the exact to the last unit. Therefore, in my own opinion based on what we have here, I would bet the PS2 final number is anywhere between 159.2M and 160M. Out of which I updated and adjusted my 2 charts comparison including PS2, DS and Switch. (this is the most exact, adjusted and point to point one I've made since, I also looked at 150M sold in start of 2011 announcement to align, the 155M announce at march 2012, and 159M sold lifetime, which should be till the end of 2013, cuz the production was ended on January 2013, but as we all know, after every system stop production it's still selling it's last units for months to come. And yes, cuz of the added now full 2013 year of sales of PS2, now the PS2 line is even longer going ahead, and it's even more extreme climb of the mountain for the Switch. I explained here and in this comment (https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9507805) why I think 159M is the closest as possible number but for those having a problem with that, on the chart the 158.7 (like it was before) and 159M are basically the same. Anyway, based on the recent Jim Ryan comment, I also believe we will get a 100% confirmation very soon.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 29 March 2024