Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

[trunkswd]

Fight-the-Streets said:

trunkswd said:

Jim Ryan revealed the PS2 sold 160 million lifetime on the PlayStation Podcast.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/460475/jim-ryan-says-the-ps2-sold-160-million-units-lifetime/

I guess before the podcast Jim has read my post regarding blaming Sony for not revealing the final number and thought he has to come up with something.But obviously, he is rounding up the numbers. The PS2 certainly didn't sell flat out 160.00m. Anything from 157.50m to 159.99m you can conveniently round up to 160m.

Fact is the following: The highest mathematical theoretical possible is 161.9m (as unfolded on Resetra and here on VGChartz several times) but it is VERY unlikely that it actually sold more than 159.2m because in FY21 (ending March 31, 2022) the PS2 shipped 4.1m and production stopped in January 2023 - so it is VERY unlikely that in it's very last year of existence that it sold more than the year before (4.1m). Therefore, when the PS2 was at 155m (or for those who think it actually was at 155.1m), the absolute realistic maximum is 159.2m by end of life (March 31, 2023).

Yeah after doing some thinking and looking over the math I decided to revert back our PS2 figure to 158.7M, which is the minimum based on official figures from Sony.

Here is the previously posted math from over a year ago:

Sony reported PS2 shipped 155.1M as of March 2012 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Sony reported PS3 shipped 63.9M as of March 2012 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Sony combined PS2 and PS3 together as Computer Entertainment System and PSP + PSV as Portable Entertainment System for FY 2012 (April 2012 to March 2013) https://web.archive.org/web/20130921081219/http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_hardware_e.html

PS2+PS3 shipped 16.5M for the 2012 FY https://web.archive.org/web/20131014055001/http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdata_ces_sale_e.html

Sony announced PS3 surpassed 80M on November 2 2013 https://www.ign.com/articles/2013/11/06/ps3-sells-over-80-million-units-with-4332-games-released

Sony reported PS3 shipped 1.1M + 2.0M in Q2 + Q3 2013 https://www.neogaf.com/threads/sony-q2-fy13-ps3-2-0-m.707013/

Tally up 1.1M + 2.0M + 63.9M = 67M

PS3 cannot have passed 80M before November 2, 2013, meaning PS3's maximum shipment LTD as of September 2013 must be less than 80M.

79.9M - 67M = 12.9M as the absolute most PS3 could have shipped in FY 2012

16.5M - 12.9M = 3.6M left over for PS2

3.6M + 155.1M = 158.7M minimum.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 29 March 2024