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Forums - Sales - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 95 65.52%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 26 17.93%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 24 16.55%
 
Total:145
javi741 said:

Man I hope either the Switch sells 162M+ or Sony for sure officially confirms the exact number of PS2 sold, cause if the Switch sells anywhere between 155M-161M, speculation will run rampant of if Switch is #1 or not. People calculated the maximum the PS2 could have sold is around 161.9M, so if the Switch outsells that, that'll essentially end all speculation on which is #1 all time.

However, when it comes to the general media, I wonder what number they'll use for the PS2. Some media outlets use the 155M figure, others the 158-159M figure, and now it seems like the big media outlets are pointing towards the 160M figure after what Jim Ryan said that even Wikipedia updated the PS2's total. Hopefully at least one of those things happen to end the speculation.

My personal opinion though is that the PS2 sold closer to 159M. I can't imagine the PS2 outselling it's prior FY where 4.3M consoles were sold especially when the PS2's last FY only lasted 9 months. Yea the PS2's sales trajectory was a bit more anomalous in its later years but I can't see it sell much more than it's prior FY.

First, I agree with your opinion of 159M for PS2.

Second let's review the options and why and what we can say about them:

155M - that one was the last official number given from sony in 2012. PS2 sold for almost 1 year more, and it's calculated by many that it sold at around 4M or little bit above. The media was saying 155M before, cuz that was the last official number from sony, and also the most of the media doesn't care if they are exact with the numbers to the point, since they only look to write down the article and to be readed many times, most of the writers doesn't give a shit about is it 155 or 158 or 160M. So if the last number from sony was 120M and PS2 sold 160M, the article again will be 120M. It's the same.

158-159M - Honestly I haven't seen that range and numbers almost anywhere except for IGN and wikipedia (but was edited back and forth with 155m often). However the articles with this range and numbers have been probably the last few years and before the comment made by Jim Ryan.

160M - You will see more and more articles with that, since many of the media take that for granted since it's like official, because it's from the CEO himself, and as I said earlier they don't give a shit whether it's exact to the point or not, and it's just easier for them to use the last official given number, which since yesterday it's 160M.

About it's last year the PS2, yes, it's maybe bigger or even but see one of my previous comments. I gave and example with the different years for PS2 and there were a few where the year after sells out better or at least on par with the year before that. But the range for Switch and if there is debate or not, should be anywhere between 159-160M not 155-162M. So if switch passes 160M, for me it outsold the PS2, unless of course Sony comes out and give official to the point number which is above 160M.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

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Fight-the-Streets said:

What is funny is that in the table, Wikipedia has it at 160.2m (as of March 31, 2013). I think it's a typo, otherwise there's no clue from where they have the addtional 200k.

I am not sure how much Wikipedia can be takes as something, since it's pages about PS2 can be edited, by literally everyone. So everyone can go there and edit, and unless it's banned from there by IP, he can change whatever he wants how many times he wants.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

XtremeBG said:
javi741 said:

Man I hope either the Switch sells 162M+ or Sony for sure officially confirms the exact number of PS2 sold, cause if the Switch sells anywhere between 155M-161M, speculation will run rampant of if Switch is #1 or not. People calculated the maximum the PS2 could have sold is around 161.9M, so if the Switch outsells that, that'll essentially end all speculation on which is #1 all time.

However, when it comes to the general media, I wonder what number they'll use for the PS2. Some media outlets use the 155M figure, others the 158-159M figure, and now it seems like the big media outlets are pointing towards the 160M figure after what Jim Ryan said that even Wikipedia updated the PS2's total. Hopefully at least one of those things happen to end the speculation.

My personal opinion though is that the PS2 sold closer to 159M. I can't imagine the PS2 outselling it's prior FY where 4.3M consoles were sold especially when the PS2's last FY only lasted 9 months. Yea the PS2's sales trajectory was a bit more anomalous in its later years but I can't see it sell much more than it's prior FY.

First, I agree with your opinion of 159M for PS2.

Second let's review the options and why and what we can say about them:

155M - that one was the last official number given from sony in 2012. PS2 sold for almost 1 year more, and it's calculated by many that it sold at around 4M or little bit above. The media was saying 155M before, cuz that was the last official number from sony, and also the most of the media doesn't care if they are exact with the numbers to the point, since they only look to write down the article and to be readed many times, most of the writers doesn't give a shit about is it 155 or 158 or 160M. So if the last number from sony was 120M and PS2 sold 160M, the article again will be 120M. It's the same.

158-159M - Honestly I haven't seen that range and numbers almost anywhere except for IGN and wikipedia (but was edited back and forth with 155m often). However the articles with this range and numbers have been probably the last few years and before the comment made by Jim Ryan.

160M - You will see more and more articles with that, since many of the media take that for granted since it's like official, because it's from the CEO himself, and as I said earlier they don't give a shit whether it's exact to the point or not, and it's just easier for them to use the last official given number, which since yesterday it's 160M.

About it's last year the PS2, yes, it's maybe bigger or even but see one of my previous comments. I gave and example with the different years for PS2 and there were a few where the year after sells out better or at least on par with the year before that. But the range for Switch and if there is debate or not, should be anywhere between 159-160M not 155-162M. So if switch passes 160M, for me it outsold the PS2, unless of course Sony comes out and give official to the point number which is above 160M.

I absolutely agree on the media's take. It's 160M for them now. So be it. This is what will control the narrative ongoing. Fair or not.



😭 poor King Switch, they deserve #1



XtremeBG said:

First, I agree with your opinion of 159M for PS2.

About it's last year the PS2, yes, it's maybe bigger or even but see one of my previous comments. I gave and example with the different years for PS2 and there were a few where the year after sells out better or at least on par with the year before that. But the range for Switch and if there is debate or not, should be anywhere between 159-160M not 155-162M. So if switch passes 160M, for me it outsold the PS2, unless of course Sony comes out and give official to the point number which is above 160M.

At bold: That's right but it's a difference between any given year and the last year of production, meaning yes, it's an anomaly but plausible that a console with a long life after it's peak has years that sell better than or on par with the previous year but in it's last year of production, it seems rather unlogical that it sells more than in the previous year. Especially, as the FY2012 sold 4.1mil (I would say a very good number for a console that late in its life), if the sales in FY2013 would have surpassed it, it wouldn't make sense then to kill off the PS2 by then as obviously there would be still life in it. I know the problem is that they already had to support production lines for 4 consoles, the upcoming PS4, PS3, PSVita and even still the PSP, so supporting a 5. console would not be feasible. On the other hand, if the PS2 still could easily sell a few additional millions (and more important, sell legacy software to these new customers), Sony would do it as they are a big company, surely they would find resources to produce those additional millions and continue to support the PS2 community a little longer. (After all, Sony has a long legacy of many unsuccessful products and departments, they could have just shift/streamline some of them and focus them on the more productive PS2 line).



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Fight-the-Streets said:

At bold: That's right but it's a difference between any given year and the last year of production, meaning yes, it's an anomaly but plausible that a console with a long life after it's peak has years that sell better than or on par with the previous year but in it's last year of production, it seems rather unlogical that it sells more than in the previous year. Especially, as the FY2012 sold 4.1mil (I would say a very good number for a console that late in its life), if the sales in FY2013 would have surpassed it, it wouldn't make sense then to kill off the PS2 by then as obviously there would be still life in it. I know the problem is that they already had to support production lines for 4 consoles, the upcoming PS4, PS3, PSVita and even still the PSP, so supporting a 5. console would not be feasible. On the other hand, if the PS2 still could easily sell a few additional millions (and more important, sell legacy software to these new customers), Sony would do it as they are a big company, surely they would find resources to produce those additional millions and continue to support the PS2 community a little longer. (After all, Sony has a long legacy of many unsuccessful products and departments, they could have just shift/streamline some of them and focus them on the more productive PS2 line).

This is a question unanswered from years ago (the only answer is they had 4 systems in production so they had to cut out the PS2). Even if PS2 last year did the same 4.1M or even lower for example 3M or even 2M if you want, there was no need to cut the production off since almost all of the consoles are made till their last year sales are 1M or even below that. So PS2 had at least 2-3 more years on the market to reach the 1M or lower sales for a year. They didn't have a reason to stop sell it other than the production line getting 5 consoles.



My primary threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / JP 2025 / 2025 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdowns: Global / Regional / Historical / YOY Charts / 150M+ Club Chart

Best holiday months / When will the Switch pass 160M? / LT expectations of: Switch / PS5 / XBSX / Switch 2

CosmicSex said:

I mean the Switch isn't selling another 20 million. I've got two... I'm not getting another one. And be honest we all have more than one.

There are a lot of kids who don't have a Switch yet. And in the next years many millions of babys will grow up to kids, which then get their first handheld from their parents (or grandparents).

Which one will the parents buy for their kids with tiny hands? A 400g - 600g heavy Switch 2 for $300 - $500? Or a much cheaper and lighter Nintendo Switch Lite better suited for little kids with over 10,000 games available?

Until Nintendo replaces the Switch Lite with a Switch 2 lite, Switch 1 systems will still sell as entry models to the Switch ecosphere.



Conina said:

Which one will the parents buy for their kids with tiny hands? A 400g - 600g heavy Switch 2 for $300 - $500? Or a much cheaper and lighter Nintendo Switch Lite better suited for little kids with over 10,000 games available

You underestimate how strong kids are, my kid is barly 3 and can already hold a switch OLED up without issues.



The world belongs to you-Pan America

Conina said:
CosmicSex said:

I mean the Switch isn't selling another 20 million. I've got two... I'm not getting another one. And be honest we all have more than one.

There are a lot of kids who don't have a Switch yet. And in the next years many millions of babys will grow up to kids, which then get their first handheld from their parents (or grandparents).

Which one will the parents buy for their kids with tiny hands? A 400g - 600g heavy Switch 2 for $300 - $500? Or a much cheaper and lighter Nintendo Switch Lite better suited for little kids with over 10,000 games available?

Until Nintendo replaces the Switch Lite with a Switch 2 lite, Switch 1 systems will still sell as entry models to the Switch ecosphere.

No I don't think so.  I think it is much more likely that parents give their Switch or Switch lite to their kids and buy the Switch 2 for themselves.



CosmicSex said:

No I don't think so.  I think it is much more likely that parents give their Switch or Switch lite to their kids and buy the Switch 2 for themselves.

Its not like that every (or a huge percentage of) kid has parents who already own a Switch 



 

 

We reap what we sow