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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or Neither? (March 2024 Update Poll)

 

Will Switch outsell DS and/or PS2? or neither?

Switch will outsell both the DS & PS2 81 63.78%
 
Switch will outsell the DS, but not PS2 24 18.90%
 
Switch won't outsell DS or PS2 22 17.32%
 
Total:127

This is an interesting question if that rumor was true about the successor getting delayed to 2025. That would mean we will perhaps see successor coming next March right around when Switch launched. So that leaves Switch as prime not only through another holiday season but also a couple extra months next year. This could add an extra few million to Switch's lifetime sales. I voted it won't pass either, but if successor doesn't come out until March 2025 I could see Switch perhaps barely passing DS lifetime, by like end of 2026. Perhaps hitting 155m total.

Nintendo could also decide they want the Switch to keep selling as a cheaper option after the successor launches. So if they do something like discontinue the original Switch, keeping the Lite and OLED but slashing the price of those to $150/$250, then I think it would for sure pass the DS and might even take down the PS2 as that would mean it might maintain 2-3 million in annual sales for a few years. It could hit 158m/159m if they do that.

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 09 April 2024

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Slownenberg said:

This is an interesting question if that rumor was true about the successor getting delayed to 2025. That would mean we will perhaps see successor coming next March right around when Switch launched. So that leaves Switch as prime not only through another holiday season but also a couple extra months next year. This could add an extra few million to Switch's lifetime sales. I voted it won't pass either, but if successor doesn't come out until March 2025 I could see Switch perhaps barely passing DS lifetime, by like end of 2026. Perhaps hitting 155m total.

Nintendo could also decide they want the Switch to keep selling as a cheaper option after the successor launches. So if they do something like discontinue the original Switch, keeping the Lite and OLED but slashing the price of those to $150/$250, then I think it would for sure pass the DS and might even take down the PS2 as that would mean it might maintain 2-3 million in annual sales for a few years. It could hit 158m/159m if they do that.

I do believe the Spring (March) release in 2025 is the most possible.
And I do believe theyll have the OLED still selling at least. I say just the OLED becaause the OLED is about 60-70% of all sales for the past 6 months.

And from this 160M is easy. Switch has shipped ~141.13M, 19M to go, and I think their FY goal for 2024 will be near 12-13M. Making 6M more will be a cake walk.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

I can't stop asking myself, when is the best time to announce Switch 2?

Would be smarter for Nintendo to Wait until next year to announce it? Because Switch still has one good Holiday season.

Could we have a February/March Announcement Direct? And then breaking the record for New Console-Reveal timelapse?

How soon can we get a console after Revealing it? 🤔

Switch got 6 months, maybe 4 could be acceptable. And as you can see, Wii U didn't do any good after the official reveal... (just kidding here).

Last edited by eddy7eddy - on 09 April 2024

Cobretti2 said:

It should do but even if it stalls badly, I think to get the record Nintendo should do what they don't do and that is slash the console in half once the switch successor comes out. It will fly off the shelves to people who can't afford to pay the full price of a console.

I agree, although the only model they really need to cut the price on is the Lite.  This is because the 3DS got down to $80 USD and it was bundled with Mario Kart.  That used to be the cheapest entry point to get into gaming with a dedicated system.  Currently a Switch Lite is $200 USD and it doesn't come with a game.  Nintendo is effectively pricing people out of the market, the way that the prices currently are.

I do think it would be reasonable for them to bring the Lite price down to $150 USD and bundle in Mario Kart.  Also, they could release key titles as a Nintendo Selects brand at a cheaper price and push their online subscription.  If they did this, they would bring in new gamers that are priced out of the current market and still keep profit margins high.  They could easily keep shipping systems until 2028 (or later) under this plan while having the people interested in a dockable Switch move on to the Switch 2.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 10 April 2024

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Cobretti2 said:

It should do but even if it stalls badly, I think to get the record Nintendo should do what they don't do and that is slash the console in half once the switch successor comes out. It will fly off the shelves to people who can't afford to pay the full price of a console.

I agree, although the only model they really need to cut the price on is the Lite.  This is because the 3DS got down to $80 USD and it was bundled with Mario Kart.  That used to be the cheapest entry point to get into gaming with a dedicated system. 

I do think it would be reasonable for them to bring the Lite price down to $150 USD and bundle in Mario Kart.

Yeah, that would be a smart move. Switch Lite + Mario Kart 8 + a few months Nintendo Online for $149 or even $129.

Many of the new customers would also buy the DLC-tracks and probably extend the Nintendo Online subscription, when they are enjoying the MK8 online multiplayer mode.



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Even if it doesn't I think it's more impressive regardless. Both PS2 and DS were heavily discounted at the end of their lives. Switch is still full price.



newwil7l said:

Even if it doesn't I think it's more impressive regardless. Both PS2 and DS were heavily discounted at the end of their lives. Switch is still full price.

Strictly speaking and being pedantically correct, keeping the same price over a long time is technically a discount given inflation. However yes, your point is still 100% valid. Switch sold itself with all its flaws (such as online, "Nintendo Tax", Joy-con drift, etc) despite any real major effort to sustain sales other than releasing big games and standard marketing. 

I wonder how much in a hurry they are to replace it? They still hold all the cards to boost sales a tad bit more (Nintendo Selects? Price cut? Heavier bundles like a couple of major games and/or some months of free online?) and eventually market the next console as "the successor to the most sold console of all time". Of course, that would mean the bragging rights means to them more than the money they may lose with the discounts or by withholding the release of the Switch 2 (unless they estimate discounting the current Switch and its games would make the sales go up enough to compensate). They are a business after all and only money decides.



Well the Switch has already outsold the DS now it is onto the PS2!!!!



BiON!@ 

hellobion2 said:

Well the Switch has already outsold the DS now it is onto the PS2!!!!

You are jumping the gun. But I think I understand why you think so. Since Nintendo has at least a minimum of 11 months left on the market solo, until its successor arrives. If it can sell near 1M units each month then the DS will be surpassed easily.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Give us new DKC and Rhythm Heaven !!!
Get that 165 M !!