Yeah it did amazing last year which is why it was able to sell 3.95M in Japan alone and this year wont be able to match the 80k weeks it had in the summer (with a few +100k too). This year is still on the seesaw between good, bad, and meh.

First, if we want to understand how well the Switch will sell in Japan, it would be amazing if we can see how many purchased units go over seas. Because obviously they are being sent to other countries, Japan is at like 1 in 3 people have a Switch almost (rough estimate). China? India? maybe? Because that is one of the reasons it is still selling well in Japan, also because the yen has depreciated a lot in the past year. Meaning other countries money is worth more in Japan making items seem cheap.

Second, we need to understand what sells best in Japan. Monster Hunter, Shin Megami Tensei, Disgaea and Thousand Year Door. Those will keep the Switch alive and over 56k for the summer at the bare minimum. And then we have the holiday games which we'll learn about in the next Nintendo Direct. When do we think itll be? May?

I do agree -25% is realistic. I'm just setting another expectation for it since the YoY is still very close. Honestly it is very competitive to 2018 sales. ShadowLink93 has an amazing chart and 2024 actually ahead of 2018 in sales. Though the holiday is where 2024 will fail and 2018 will surpass. Like wow 2018 holiday sales were crazy, 100-300k each week, wow.

Consoles being sent overseas is for sure happening to a significant degree since it doesn't really make sense otherwise for it to be holding up better this year so far compared to NA and Europe when it's already just about broken the all time record in Japan. The next direct should be June and the YoY is close so far yeah though in 2023 it sold well January-April in Japan though nothing crazy while the following few months it had an incredible stretch for its age thanks to the combination of the Mario film and TOTK.

I think the absolute best case scenario is it being within a few hundred thousand of 2018 at the end.

Ok so we should be looking at a range of 2.96M - 3.36M, both are the minimum and maximum.

If Nintendo has some great games for the second half of 2024 we can expect it to be closer to 3.36M

I wouldn't go that high for the maximum though it is for sure gonna be the worst year yet for the Switch though with how old it is it would be extraordinary if that isn't the case. 

The thing is that I don't expect any huge games the second half of this year, some small-medium tier titles and maybe one that's kinda big but nothing Mario Wonder sized or TOTK sized. Prime 4 has at least a decent chance of releasing this holiday though I do think it would be better for that game if it's a cross-gen launch title.

15% is not happening, let alone 10%. While it has done surprisingly well in Japan the past several weeks it's not gonna be able to compete with how well it did last year from week 18 till 41 and the successor will get announced at some point this year which will have a negative impact on sales including during the holiday season. 

Don't be so quick to predict that a successor will be announced this year. People on this board have been saying this for 2 years now and have been wrong every single time. Nintendo is in new territory they have never been in before, anything is possible at this point.

Don't be so quick to predict that a successor will be announced this year. People on this board have been saying this for 2 years now and have been wrong every single time. Nintendo is in new territory they have never been in before, anything is possible at this point.

I agree with this. While I still think it's likely that the successor is announced this year and comes out early next year, the position the Switch is in is extremely uncommon and the route Nintendo decides to take is unknown. 

For all we know it could be important to Nintendo to secure the number one spot all time. Or, because of diminishing returns on graphics (and higher game budgets), it could be trying to set the precedent of 9-10 year life cycles for their consoles. 

At this point the only thing I'm sure of is that I want some version of the Miiverse back. 

I'm not one of those people so that's not relevant to what I'm saying. The Switch is probably releasing early next year so it's just common sense to expect it to be announced later this year unless Nintendo waits till January to announce it though I really don't expect that. That's different than expecting it to be announced when sales are still really high.

Nintendo definitely doesn't care about securing the number one spot so much that they would delay launching the successor for it. It's already been rumoured they delayed it to early next year from late this year and getting the number one spot was not a factor in the any of the reports about it at all.

And the Switch doesn't have enough juice left in the tank to last 9-10 years, 8 is the most it can last before sales start getting bad since this is the last year it's gonna sell over 10m.

Switch will have its successor releasing next year, since they've already determined that it was supposed to come out this year. They will most likely announce it when they were supposed to release it. So I presume they will announce it Nov 17, 2024. Since the consoles that release in Nov are always on the 3rd Sunday. I just hope it'll not put a damper on the holiday year. If there is a solid game then it wont be a problem.

The latest they could wait to announce it would be at the Super Bowl.

And the Switch will get its replacement nearing its 9th year. And most consoles last 2-3 years after their successor launches, so we can see the Switch easily have a 10th and a 11th year, but this can and will only happen if Nintendo doesnt drop their Switch off the cliff like Mario does to the baby penguin.

Nintendo did say that the Switch was supposed to push the limits of a console life cycle.