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Norion on 24 April 2024
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Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:

Consoles being sent overseas is for sure happening to a significant degree since it doesn't really make sense otherwise for it to be holding up better this year so far compared to NA and Europe when it's already just about broken the all time record in Japan. The next direct should be June and the YoY is close so far yeah though in 2023 it sold well January-April in Japan though nothing crazy while the following few months it had an incredible stretch for its age thanks to the combination of the Mario film and TOTK.

I think the absolute best case scenario is it being within a few hundred thousand of 2018 at the end.

Ok so we should be looking at a range of 2.96M - 3.36M, both are the minimum and maximum.

If Nintendo has some great games for the second half of 2024 we can expect it to be closer to 3.36M

I wouldn't go that high for the maximum though it is for sure gonna be the worst year yet for the Switch though with how old it is it would be extraordinary if that isn't the case. 

The thing is that I don't expect any huge games the second half of this year, some small-medium tier titles and maybe one that's kinda big but nothing Mario Wonder sized or TOTK sized. Prime 4 could potentially be big if it gives the series a breakout moment and it has at least a decent chance of releasing this holiday though I do think it would be better for that game if it's a cross-gen launch title.

Last edited by Norion - on 25 April 2024