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Norion on 24 April 2024
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Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:

The point I'm making is it did so well during those weeks last year that there's no way it's gonna be able to keep up enough to only be 10-15% down by the end of the year. How can it easily reach that amount on average for the rest of the year when it's sold less than that 12 out of the 15 weeks so far? There's nothing massive happening like the Mario film and TOTK releasing close together to boost sales for a few months like what happened last year. The 25% drop scenario is realistic though I wouldn't say it's a hard floor since reaching 3m will be tough.

Yeah it did amazing last year which is why it was able to sell 3.95M in Japan alone and this year wont be able to match the 80k weeks it had in the summer (with a few +100k too). This year is still on the seesaw between good, bad, and meh.

First, if we want to understand how well the Switch will sell in Japan, it would be amazing if we can see how many purchased units go over seas. Because obviously they are being sent to other countries, Japan is at like 1 in 3 people have a Switch almost (rough estimate). China? India? maybe? Because that is one of the reasons it is still selling well in Japan, also because the yen has depreciated a lot in the past year. Meaning other countries money is worth more in Japan making items seem cheap.

Second, we need to understand what sells best in Japan. Monster Hunter, Shin Megami Tensei, Disgaea and Thousand Year Door. Those will keep the Switch alive and over 56k for the summer at the bare minimum. And then we have the holiday games which we'll learn about in the next Nintendo Direct. When do we think itll be? May?

I do agree -25% is realistic. I'm just setting another expectation for it since the YoY is still very close. Honestly it is very competitive to 2018 sales. ShadowLink93 has an amazing chart and 2024 actually ahead of 2018 in sales. Though the holiday is where 2024 will fail and 2018 will surpass. Like wow 2018 holiday sales were crazy, 100-300k each week, wow.

Consoles being sent overseas is for sure happening to a significant degree since it doesn't really make sense otherwise for it to be holding up better this year so far compared to NA and Europe when it's already just about broken the all time record in Japan. The next direct should be June and the YoY is close so far yeah though in 2023 it sold well January-April in Japan though nothing crazy while the following few months it had an incredible stretch for its age thanks to the combination of the Mario film and TOTK.

I think the absolute best case scenario is it being within a few hundred thousand of 2018 at the end.