Accident, ignore.

In the end it's about software sales. In previous generations it was the decline of software sales that pushed Nintendo to release a new generation. Look at the Gameboy. Software kept selling so they decided to keep going with it. The Gameboy Colour only came 9 years into its lifecycle and that was even marketed as just an extension of the Gameboy.

Switch is selling software. If will be around 200 million 2024 fiscal year, probably 150 million current one. As long as software sales keep going, Nintendo will not be in a hurry replacing the Switch. Also I would not be surprised it will do a Gameboy/Gameboy Colour again and just launch the new hardware as Switch family.

Currently at 141M with 11 months to go to the successor, assuming they ship it in March of 2025. Switch is selling about 750K a month worldwide right now.

There will be a bit of a boost over the final holiday season, and then a lag as people anticipate the release in 2025. So a minimum of 9M, probably 10M right on the dot. I'm predicting it'll finally have a price cut alongside the Switch 2 and sell for maybe 200 or so, about what the 3DS was. And that one sold 8M after the release of Switch to when it was discontinued. Assuming it does about the same, it's looking to finish at about 158M to 160M. So yes, if all of these hold true, it's going to pass PS2, just barely.

How are the software sales this year in comparison to last year? At least regarding hardware sales, the Switch is sitting at -6.4% YoY with all the data we have at the moment.

What do you think will be the highest software seller of 2024?

If Nintendo was to do that, would you assume that the rumor about the Youtube poll is true for its name? The Nintendo Switch Attach

Right now with all data available the Switch has shipped approximately 141.75M, and sold 139.14M

And agreed that this fourth quarter is showing the Switch selling lower than 1M per month like in 2023, and will probably sell near 750k in March worldwide. But I think that Nintendo will set 12M as their FY goal. I say this because the Q4 is always the worst selling quarter, so if we are seeing ~800k monthly average for Q4 that gives some hope that the next 3 quarters will be above 800k, I think they can reach near 900k for the majority of most upcoming months and slightly above 1M for the holiday months.

Its going to be close.
I hope it ends up at like 161m+, so theres no doubt, about who is first and who is secound.

Been thinking that maybe Nintendo won't do a price drop and would instead just drop the Switch OLED and release Switch 2 at $400 (especially since I am thinking Switch 2 won't have an OLED screen). Then you'd have Switch Lite, Switch & Switch 2. Maybe they'll even drop the regular Switch if the successor is backwards compatible.

*By looking at the amount of OLED Switch being sold compared to V2 Switch in the last year, I they wouldn't drop the OLED.

They'll drop the Switch, sell OLED, Lite and successor in 2025 to 2026. Continuing with the successor for many more years.

If the successor is backwards compatible how likely should we expect them to say the successor is a part of the Switch family? Like how they had the Gameboy Color part of the Gameboy family (even though Gameboy Advance wasn't).

*I reread my reply and I realized it seemed negative. I rewrote it to have a more constructive and hopefully neutral outlook. Lo siento.

If they count the Switch successor like the Game Boy Color we are talking combined sales of 250M+. I'm not sure they'd do that again. Though I expect the Switch 2 to have backwards compatibility either way (and hopefully run Switch 1 games better). 

I could be wrong but if they were to drop the price of the Switch I only see a $50 drop. 

King Switch is probably 145 million at this moment

So 155 by next march
160 by December 2025
165 life time sales

Switch shipped goes rather parallel with the amount sold. Personally, Ive been following the sold amount and adding the totals to the shipped numbers. And they have been very spot on with errors ranging from tens of thousands to 1.2M. But it has never sold more than shipped. (Though we might be seeing that this year)
Since Nintendo said the Switch shipped 139.36M units in Dec 31, 2023. The Switch as of Apr 29, 2024 data (which does not include March Circana or March worldwide, but does include Famitsu 7-21) the Switch sold an additional 2,395,216 units. So the Switch has shipped a minimum of 141,755,216 units. Not counting the Famitsu 7-21, the Switch has shipped a minimum of 141,619,662.

Let's make an assumption that Circana has Switch selling -20% what they sold in Mar 2023, giving us an estimate of 313,662 units. And worldwide would be just around 828,436 give or take a couple ten thousand.

Switch should have around 141.96M units shipped by Mar 31, 2024. I hope they announce it has surpasses 142M in their annual report.

Nintendo will either put they FY at either 10M or 12M (both are very possible outcomes, 10M would be rather easy for them unless their holiday is lackluster). Ill use 12M because I believe that would be achievable.
So by March 31, 2025 Nintendo will have shipped 153M Switch units. They will only need to sell 7M units to surpass the supposed and unreliable PS2 number provided by Jim Ryan.
I personally think it will sell 162.36M by the time the Switch is removed from the shelves. Meaning by March 31, 2025 the Switch would have to sell an additional 9.36M which can be achieved in 2027 (6M in FY2026, and 3.36M in FY 2027 or something along those lines).

I have my prediction at 160M for now as the hard line for it will reach that.

165M would be amazing!