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In the end it's about software sales. In previous generations it was the decline of software sales that pushed Nintendo to release a new generation. Look at the Gameboy. Software kept selling so they decided to keep going with it. The Gameboy Colour only came 9 years into its lifecycle and that was even marketed as just an extension of the Gameboy.

Switch is selling software. If will be around 200 million 2024 fiscal year, probably 150 million current one. As long as software sales keep going, Nintendo will not be in a hurry replacing the Switch. Also I would not be surprised it will do a Gameboy/Gameboy Colour again and just launch the new hardware as Switch family.